Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 9:45 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTFlorida Gators RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Florida Gators vs South Carolina Gamecocks
77.8%Florida Gators
LOCKED Oct 10, 9:16 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Florida Gators; all four oriented probabilities average 77.75%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line FLA -10.5 implies roughly 77-80% favorite win probability
- Gemini: Florida is favored by 10.5 points
- Grok: Florida 4-1 record and #16 ranking vs South Carolina 2-3 and unranked
- GPT: Market line favors Florida by 10.5 points, indicating a clear expected edge
Read all four model reports
Claude · Florida Gators · 78.0%
Florida is the home favorite at -10.5 on a 59.5 total, is ranked No. 16, and carries a 4-1 record versus South Carolina's 2-3. A double-digit home spread in a moderate-scoring environment historically converts to roughly a 77-80% win probability for the favorite, and the record/ranking differential is directionally consistent with the market rather than contradicting it. I anchor to the line rather than the records, since the market already prices roster and form information, and shade only slightly off the pure conversion to respect college football's high variance and the unknown injury picture.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 5:23 AM PDTGemini · Florida Gators · 78.0%
Florida is a 10.5-point home favorite, ranked #16 with a 4-1 record, while South Carolina is unranked at 2-3. The point spread suggests a strong likelihood of a Florida victory, translating to roughly a 78% implied probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 5:23 AM PDTGrok · Florida Gators · 76.0%
Florida enters with a superior 4-1 record and #16 ranking against South Carolina's 2-3 mark and unranked status. The 10.5-point home spread at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium reflects a substantial talent and situational edge for the Gators. Historical FBS outcomes show home favorites of this magnitude win approximately three-quarters of the time when the record and ranking gaps align similarly.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 5:23 AM PDTGPT · Florida Gators · 79.0%
Florida is the stronger side in the immutable evidence package. The Gators have the better record (4-1 vs 2-3), are ranked No. 16 while South Carolina is unranked, play at home at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, and are favored by a substantial market line of Florida -10.5. Among the supplied signals, the market spread is the most directly predictive of game-winner probability and points to Florida as a clear favorite. The record and ranking also align with that view rather than conflicting with it. A fair evidence-bounded estimate is that Florida wins roughly four times out of five.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 5:23 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, QB availability, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FEI, or strength-of-schedule data
- Opponent quality behind the 4-1 and 2-3 records is unknown
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history or closing value
- No weather or travel detail
- Conference/divisional rivalry dynamics not quantified in the evidence
- No advanced efficiency metrics available
- No injury or depth chart information provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 5.3 percentage points lower for Florida Gators
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
15932a33ac4338c8db13dfc5980e71d932d38b2b79a261ca5978d4abeabf6738 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
faf12f237e1fad7efef3452ec375691686acc85d3a962fac40500e9c4fa4fb65
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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