Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 18, 3:30 AM PDT FORECASTMaja Chwalinska RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Sonay Kartal vs Maja Chwalinska
68.3%Maja Chwalinska
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Maja Chwalinska; all four oriented probabilities average 68.25%.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Chwalinska WTA rank 22 vs Kartal unranked
- Claude: Chwalinska holds an explicit rank of 22 with 2043 ranking points; Kartal's rank is null
- Gemini: Maja Chwalinska is ranked 22nd in the world.
- GPT: Maja Chwalinska has an explicit current rank of No. 22.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Maja Chwalinska · 72.0%
Maja Chwalinska holds an explicit WTA rank of 22 with 2043 ranking points and a 33-17 season record, while Sonay Kartal has null rank, null points and a 14-7 record. The ranking differential supplies the primary signal favoring Chwalinska. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per the evidence scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 7:00 AM PDTClaude · Maja Chwalinska · 60.0%
The only usable discriminators are the supplied ranking and season records. Chwalinska has an explicit ESPN rank of 22 (2043 points) and a 33-17 season record, while Kartal has no rank listed and a lighter 14-7 record, implying a smaller match load and likely lower ranking tier. That supports a modest edge for Chwalinska. However, both players have reached the final of the same event, which equalizes recent form and compresses any ranking gap, so the edge is held small. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/rest, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, and Kartal's missing rank prevents a direct ranking comparison.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 7:00 AM PDTGemini · Maja Chwalinska · 72.0%
Maja Chwalinska holds a strong world ranking of 22 and has accumulated 33 wins this season, demonstrating consistent performance at a high level. While Sonay Kartal has a comparable win percentage (14-7), her lack of a current ranking in the provided data suggests she may be competing at a lower tier or has played fewer high-level events. Chwalinska's proven top-25 pedigree makes her the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 7:00 AM PDTGPT · Maja Chwalinska · 69.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Maja Chwalinska has the clearly stronger documented profile: an explicit current WTA rank of No. 22 and a 33-17 season singles record, versus Sonay Kartal's 14-7 season singles record with no current rank supplied. The ranking evidence is the strongest separator available, and Chwalinska also has a much larger sample of season wins against losses. Kartal's 14-7 record is solid, so this is not overwhelming, but on the immutable facts provided Chwalinska should be favored. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package and therefore not used.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 7:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Kartal's current rank and ranking points are missing entirely
- No head-to-head data supplied
- No surface-specific (hard-court) splits provided
What to watch next
Wait for all required evidence and the pre-event lock. This view is not final.
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
037c0082ec754aa5d1159c3a48955edd607dff035ce879ea3feb99ca97a7ed52
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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