Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMinnesota Vikings RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK61.0% Simple average61.0% Calibrated average62.0% Kalshi56.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints
61.0%Minnesota Vikings
LOCKED Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Minnesota Vikings; all four oriented probabilities average 61%.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Minnesota Vikings' undefeated 4-0 record
- Claude: Market line MIN -2.5 as road favorite implies about 57-61% win probability
- Grok: Vikings 4-0 record vs Saints 1-3 record
- GPT: Minnesota enters 4-0 versus New Orleans at 1-3.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Minnesota Vikings · 58.0%
The Minnesota Vikings enter the game undefeated at 4-0, while the New Orleans Saints are struggling at 1-3. The betting market favors the Vikings by 2.5 points on the road, which typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 57-59%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 8, 8:00 AM PDTClaude · Minnesota Vikings · 60.0%
The market line (DraftKings MIN -2.5 on the road) is the single best anchor: a 2.5-point road favorite typically implies roughly a 57-61% win probability, slightly boosted by the low total of 41.5, which compresses variance and marginally helps the favorite. Records corroborate the direction, with Minnesota 4-0 and New Orleans 1-3 through four weeks. Offsetting factors are the Superdome home-field environment and the modest size of the spread, which keeps this close to a coin flip. No injury or quarterback-availability information is supplied, so I keep the estimate near the market-implied figure rather than pushing higher.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 8, 8:00 AM PDTGrok · Minnesota Vikings · 61.0%
Vikings enter at 4-0 while Saints are 1-3; DraftKings lists Minnesota as 2.5-point road favorites. The combination of superior record and market spread implies Minnesota holds the edge despite playing in the Superdome. No injury data or advanced metrics are supplied, so the estimate stays conservative and anchored to the visible comparative signals.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 8, 8:00 AM PDTGPT · Minnesota Vikings · 65.0%
Minnesota is the stronger side on the supplied evidence. The Vikings are 4-0, while the Saints are 1-3, which is a meaningful early-season gap in demonstrated results. The market evidence also points to Minnesota, with DraftKings listing the Vikings as 2.5-point road favorites. A road favorite status matters because it implies Minnesota would likely be favored by more on a neutral field. Home field for New Orleans offsets some of the gap, so this is not an overwhelming projection, but combining the undefeated record with the market line supports Minnesota as a clear but not dominant favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 8, 8:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring a spread-to-probability conversion
- No injury information is available for either team
- Early season records (Week 5) may not fully reflect true team strength
- Both injury lists are empty; no quarterback or key-player status provided
- No moneyline prices supplied, so implied probability is derived from the spread only
- No weather data (indoor venue, so low impact)
- No strength-of-schedule, point differential, or efficiency metrics to validate the 4-0 and 1-3 records
- Line is a single-provider snapshot dated three days before kickoff and may move
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 4.6 percentage points higher for Minnesota Vikings
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
7078f501190f3030921c05bbe226b4691bc516b1795b16b393888d493122a41f - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
4429a109b8943dd60f5095ae4a4de3b233b798cfe1baf35554fd8b3f6d8cc338
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Minnesota Vikings. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
c2c223a880311fe06d9b99e2acfa6f67ce54ea76b76a45ae9bddcce2edd5d4d6Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13
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