Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 5:20 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTKansas City Chiefs RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs
70.8%Kansas City Chiefs
LOCKED Sep 20, 4:50 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Kansas City Chiefs; all four oriented probabilities average 70.75%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line KC -6 at home implies roughly 70-73% home win probability
- Gemini: Kansas City is favored by 6 points in the betting market.
- Grok: Chiefs 1-0 record vs Colts 0-1 record
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Kansas City as a 6-point favorite (KC -6)
Read all four model reports
Claude · Kansas City Chiefs · 71.0%
The only quantitative comparative evidence is the DraftKings line: Kansas City -6 at home with a 46.5 total. Historically, a 6-point NFL favorite wins roughly 70-73% of the time, with a modest bump from the key-number structure around 6/7 and a fairly typical total. Early-season records (KC 1-0, IND 0-1) point the same direction but carry little independent weight in Week 2. Absent injury or quarterback information that could shift the picture, I anchor to the market-implied estimate and settle near 71% for Kansas City.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 19, 7:05 AM PDTGemini · Kansas City Chiefs · 72.0%
The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-point home favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. In the NFL, a 6-point spread typically translates to a moneyline of around -260 to -275, which implies a win probability of approximately 71-73% for the favorite. The Chiefs also benefit from home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium and enter the game with a 1-0 record, while the Colts are 0-1.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 19, 7:05 AM PDTGrok · Kansas City Chiefs · 68.0%
Chiefs enter at 1-0 and host the 0-1 Colts at Arrowhead Stadium. The DraftKings market line lists KC -6, indicating a substantial home favorite status. Historical home-field strength at the venue and the early-season record edge support a win probability comfortably above 50 percent, though the absence of any team statistics, quarterback information, or injury reports caps the estimate below 75 percent.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 19, 7:05 AM PDTGPT · Kansas City Chiefs · 72.0%
Kansas City is the stronger evidence-backed winner pick based on the supplied package. The Chiefs are at home at Arrowhead Stadium, enter 1-0 versus Indianapolis at 0-1, and the only market signal provided is DraftKings KC -6. In NFL games, a 6-point home favorite is a meaningful edge and is the strongest comparative evidence in this package. With no contradictory facts in the evidence, the best bounded estimate is that Kansas City wins a bit better than seven times in ten.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 19, 7:05 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or QB availability data supplied for either team
- No moneyline prices provided; conversion from KC -6 spread only
- Only one game of 2026 season record (0-1 vs 1-0) — minimal form signal
- No weather data
- Week 2 records are small-sample and non-informative beyond the market line
- No direct moneyline odds were provided, requiring the win probability to be estimated from the point spread.
- This is a Week 2 game, meaning early-season team strength and dynamics are still relatively uncertain.
- No injury information or weather details are available in the provided evidence.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
51f565f3bff6d89bae76b53120e605fbf278a4c363bd45aa5b700fac742ebc5e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e3fc502cdc4d790084e71ece717bb4545727683de41098ae61d303509eb54404
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33
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