Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 1:25 PM PDT FORECASTNew Orleans Saints RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints
60.5%New Orleans Saints
LOCKED Sep 27, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select New Orleans Saints; all four oriented probabilities average 60.5%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line NO -3.5 at home implies a Saints win probability in the low-to-mid 60s
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite
- Gemini: New Orleans Saints are favored by 3.5 points.
- Grok: Saints home underdog line of -3.5
Read all four model reports
Claude · New Orleans Saints · 63.0%
The DraftKings line of NO -3.5 at home in the Superdome is the single strongest piece of evidence, and a home favorite of that size historically wins roughly 62-66% of the time. The Raiders' 2-0 record versus the Saints' 1-1 mark is mild counter-evidence, but a two-game sample early in the season carries far less information than a market price that already incorporates roster quality, availability, and situational context. The low total (43.5) suggests an expected lower-scoring game, which slightly compresses the favorite's edge by increasing variance relative to margin, so I stay near the line-implied figure rather than above it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 23, 4:05 PM PDTGPT · New Orleans Saints · 58.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market signal: New Orleans is listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. That typically implies the Saints are more likely than not to win, and by a meaningful but not overwhelming margin. Las Vegas does have the better early record at 2-0 versus 1-1 for New Orleans, which is a counterweight, but early-season records after two games are weaker evidence than an actual game-specific market line. Home field also supports New Orleans. With no usable quarterback, injury, or weather edge in the package, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that the Saints win a bit more often than not.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 23, 4:05 PM PDTGemini · New Orleans Saints · 64.0%
The New Orleans Saints are 3.5-point home favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders. In the NFL, a -3.5 point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 63% to 65%. Despite the Raiders' 2-0 start, the market favors the home team.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 23, 4:05 PM PDTGrok · New Orleans Saints · 57.0%
The Saints host the Raiders as 3.5-point favorites in a neutral-weather dome. The Raiders hold a 2-0 record versus the Saints' 1-1 mark, but the home spread and venue advantage outweigh the early-season win differential in the supplied data. No quarterback, injury, or advanced metric details are present to alter the baseline home-favorite edge.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 23, 4:05 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists for both teams are empty, likely reflecting incomplete pre-report data rather than full health
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation provided for either side
- No moneyline odds available; probability is derived from the point spread alone
- Weather field is null, though the domed venue makes this largely immaterial
- Records are based on a two-game sample with no opponent-strength or scoring-margin context
- Line captured 2026-09-23, four days before kickoff, and may move on later news
- No moneyline was provided, only a point spread
- No quarterback-specific information was included
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.5 percentage points lower for New Orleans Saints
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
53f2ce09ec4f44d02ff30d5757a74d858be29f93efbc21d99998dd70479473c0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ad7247fcc6b12a9dfb5c8437565a6560263f042cfac311529a67d0e855d1cf25
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27
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