Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDT FORECASTJacksonville State Gamecocks RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Florida International Panthers
58.9%Jacksonville State Gamecocks
LOCKED Oct 13, 4:32 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Jacksonville State Gamecocks; all four oriented probabilities average 58.88%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Jacksonville State 4-2 record edges FIU 3-2
- Claude: Market line JXST -3 implies roughly 58-62% win probability for the favorite
- GPT: DraftKings lists Jacksonville State -3, indicating Jacksonville State is the expected favorite.
- Gemini: Jacksonville State is a 3-point favorite according to the market line.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Jacksonville State Gamecocks · 58.0%
Jacksonville State holds a 4-2 record versus FIU's 3-2. The DraftKings line lists JXST -3 at AmFirst Stadium, indicating the home side is modestly favored. No rankings are supplied for either team. These structured facts supply a directional but limited signal favoring Jacksonville State.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 12:38 PM PDTClaude · Jacksonville State Gamecocks · 60.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of JXST -3 at home (AmFirst Stadium), with a total of 44.5. A 3-point favorite with a moderate total historically converts to roughly 58-62% win probability; the low total slightly tightens variance but 3 points is the key number, so the edge is modest. Records (4-2 vs 3-2) are broadly similar and add only marginal support for Jacksonville State, which also holds home-field advantage already embedded in the line. No rankings are supplied for either side.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 12:38 PM PDTGPT · Jacksonville State Gamecocks · 58.0%
Jacksonville State gets the nod based on the two comparative signals in the evidence package: a slightly better record (4-2 vs 3-2) and a home-field market line of Jacksonville State -3. A 3-point spread at the listed venue implies Jacksonville State is the modest favorite, not a dominant one, so the win probability should be only moderately above 50%. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data allowed, the market line is the strongest indicator and supports Jacksonville State as the likelier winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 12:38 PM PDTGemini · Jacksonville State Gamecocks · 59.5%
Jacksonville State is favored by 3 points at home against Florida International. A 3-point spread in college football typically implies a win probability of around 58-62% for the favorite. Both teams have similar winning records, but the home-field advantage and market line point to Jacksonville State as the likely winner.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 12:38 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency or injury data available
- Rankings both null
- Evidence limited to scoreboard records, line, and venue
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or common-opponent data
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history or consensus
- Records lack context on opponent quality or margin of victory
- Listed start time/date fields are inconsistent in presentation (Tue Oct 13 8:00 PM EDT vs 2026-10-14T00:00Z), though these reconcile to the same kickoff
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points higher for Jacksonville State Gamecocks
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ad7c67614cf9843a9689649acdb3f7120e08345ee3ba06d1b44538eff114b32b - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e9c0701f0ea926b1d3b480d957b2d5822aeb258c3cc02da8be79fd39c42ba795
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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