Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 1:05 PM PDT FORECASTMinnesota Vikings RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
56.4%Minnesota Vikings
LOCKED Sep 27, 12:35 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Minnesota Vikings; all four oriented probabilities average 56.38%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line MIN -1.5 makes Minnesota a slight favorite even on the road at Raymond James Stadium
- Gemini: Market spread of MIN -1.5
- GPT: Minnesota is 2-0; Tampa Bay is 0-2.
- Grok: Vikings 2-0 record versus Buccaneers 0-2 record
Read all four model reports
Claude · Minnesota Vikings · 56.0%
DraftKings lists Minnesota at -1.5 as the road team, implying the market sees the Vikings as a marginal favorite despite giving up home-field advantage; a 1.5-point edge converts to roughly a 54-56% win probability. The records agree directionally, with Minnesota 2-0 and Tampa Bay 0-2 entering Week 3. However, the spread is near a pick'em, the total of 42.5 suggests a lower-scoring game that increases variance, and no injury or quarterback-status information is supplied for either side, so I keep the estimate close to the market-implied baseline rather than stretching it toward the record differential.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 22, 9:11 PM PDTGemini · Minnesota Vikings · 55.5%
The Minnesota Vikings are slight road favorites with a -1.5 point spread. They have started the season 2-0, while the Buccaneers are 0-2. A -1.5 spread typically translates to an implied win probability of around 54-56%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 22, 9:11 PM PDTGPT · Minnesota Vikings · 58.0%
Minnesota has the stronger evidence-based pregame profile in the package: a 2-0 record versus Tampa Bay's 0-2 record, plus a market line of Vikings -1.5 on the road. A road favorite by a small margin is typically only a modest favorite, so this is not a dominant edge, but it is still the clearest comparative signal in the evidence. The home field for Tampa Bay prevents the estimate from being much higher, and the lack of quarterback, weather, and detailed injury context limits precision. Within those constraints, Minnesota is the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 22, 9:11 PM PDTGrok · Minnesota Vikings · 56.0%
Vikings enter at 2-0 while Buccaneers are 0-2. The DraftKings market line lists Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite, indicating the oddsmakers view Minnesota as the stronger side despite the venue. No injury data or quarterback details are supplied, but the combination of record and spread supplies the only comparative evidence available.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 22, 9:11 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury designations listed for either team; official game-status reports may not have published
- No quarterback confirmation for either side in the evidence package
- Moneyline prices are null, so implied probability is derived from the spread only
- Weather data is null for an outdoor late-September game in Tampa
- Two-game records are a very small sample and no scoring or efficiency data is provided
- Line is a single provider snapshot dated four days before kickoff and may move
- No moneyline provided
- No injury reports available
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
63ec3ba3cab1108a93ddff53d68d9f0efde5467123254ac5ae36bad378afd79a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c334e3e4a546ae0932125a22836db0e7ce4f371074f3312a0c7dd191611a93df
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
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