Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 5:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMinnesota Golden Gophers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Purdue Boilermakers vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
57.6%Minnesota Golden Gophers
LOCKED Oct 10, 4:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Minnesota Golden Gophers; all four oriented probabilities average 57.63%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Minnesota's 4-1 record compared to Purdue's 2-3 record
- Grok: Minnesota 4-1 record vs Purdue 2-3
- Claude: Market line MINN -2.5 implies roughly 57% win probability for Minnesota
- GPT: Market line favors Minnesota by 2.5 points.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Minnesota Golden Gophers · 57.5%
Minnesota is a slight 2.5-point road favorite despite playing at Purdue's Ross-Ade Stadium. The Golden Gophers have a superior 4-1 record compared to Purdue's 2-3, supporting their status as the favored team. A 2.5-point spread typically translates to roughly a 57-58% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGrok · Minnesota Golden Gophers · 57.0%
Minnesota enters with a superior 4-1 record compared to Purdue's 2-3. The market line shows Minnesota favored by 2.5 points despite playing at Ross-Ade Stadium. No rankings are available for either team. These structured facts provide a modest edge to Minnesota but lack depth for a stronger projection.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTClaude · Minnesota Golden Gophers · 57.0%
DraftKings lists Minnesota as a 2.5-point road favorite at Ross-Ade Stadium, which is the single most informative supplied signal. Historically, a 2.5-point favorite converts to roughly a 56-59% win probability, with the key-number region around 3 limiting how much more can be extracted. The records corroborate the direction: Minnesota at 4-1 versus Purdue at 2-3, and the market is already pricing Purdue's home-field advantage into the small spread. No injury, ranking, or efficiency data is provided to justify deviating from the market-implied estimate, so I anchor near it with a slight shade for pick-em-level uncertainty.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGPT · Minnesota Golden Gophers · 59.0%
Minnesota is the evidence-based favorite. The supplied market line lists Minnesota -2.5, which is the strongest comparative signal in the package and implies a modest edge on a neutral interpretation of available information. The records also favor Minnesota, 4-1 versus Purdue at 2-3. Purdue does have home field at Ross-Ade Stadium, which offsets some of Minnesota’s advantage, so the estimate should stay relatively close rather than decisive. With no rankings and no injury or efficiency data in scope, the best bounded estimate is a narrow Minnesota win probability.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Lack of advanced efficiency metrics
- No injury or depth chart information
- Weather conditions are not provided
- Injuries and depth-chart changes unavailable
- Advanced team efficiency metrics unavailable
- Evidence limited to scoreboard records, line, and venue only
- Future-dated event with no additional context
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
23d76274d56f45692f5cac67d74e7be8498112e523707a86941c22f714b30717 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
4766eb80057151869998c9ca21f85dd8027d247faff7cfe8cea2770a305ab7fc
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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