Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTWashington Commanders RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK59.5% Simple average59.5% Calibrated average60.4% Kalshi63.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
59.5%Washington Commanders
LOCKED Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Washington Commanders; all four oriented probabilities average 59.5%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Washington Commanders are 3.5-point home favorites.
- Grok: Commanders favored by 3.5 at home
- GPT: Washington is the home team.
- Claude: DraftKings line WSH -3.5 at home implies roughly 62-66% home win probability
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Washington Commanders · 64.0%
Despite the New York Giants holding a superior 3-1 record compared to the Washington Commanders' 1-3 start, the betting market favors Washington by 3.5 points at home. A -3.5 point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 64% for the favored team.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 8, 6:01 AM PDTGrok · Washington Commanders · 55.0%
Commanders host the game and are favored by 3.5 points on the market line despite a 1-3 record versus the Giants' 3-1. The spread provides the strongest comparative signal in the evidence package. No injury or quarterback data is supplied to adjust further.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 8, 6:01 AM PDTGPT · Washington Commanders · 56.0%
The evidence is mixed but usable. New York has the better record at 3-1 versus Washington at 1-3, which would normally favor the Giants. However, the only direct market signal in the package lists Washington as a 3.5-point home favorite, and market lines are usually the strongest comparative evidence available in this format because they synthesize team strength, home field, and available roster information. Since the market favorite conflicts with the worse win-loss record, the most evidence-bounded conclusion is a modest lean to Washington rather than a strong one.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 8, 6:01 AM PDTClaude · Washington Commanders · 63.0%
The only direct market signal is DraftKings WSH -3.5 at home with a low total (41.5). A 3.5-point home favorite typically converts to roughly a 62-66% win probability, and the depressed total slightly reduces variance in favor of the favorite. This cuts against the surface records (NYG 3-1, WSH 1-3), suggesting the market views Washington as the stronger underlying team whose record overstates its weakness (or that it sees Giants' record as inflated). I weight the price more heavily than the four-game records but shade modestly toward the Giants to acknowledge the record discrepancy and the absence of any injury/QB-status information, landing at about 63% for Washington.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 8, 6:01 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No direct moneyline odds are provided, requiring probability estimation from the point spread.
- Injury reports and starting quarterback details are missing.
- Weather conditions for the game are not specified.
- No injury reports or quarterback details available
- Market line lacks moneyline odds
- Weather and advanced metrics absent
- Moneyline prices are not provided, only a point spread.
- The market signal conflicts with the teams' current records, reducing certainty.
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 4.3 percentage points higher for Washington Commanders
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
02dbd29d465d223908d92f1b33d67367a11cb869bdd2bc7b42cf3691ef87f533 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
4060a56f488b79b3a2b00af53c0e780a24116486840311b2ce2060e3e4bfe2c6
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Washington Commanders. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
9b6144286e445627f2ab70c8cb9c5cf3006fb660c17636cc64599aa3f89baac7Available source context
No direct source links are attached to this brief. The event page shows the available context.
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
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