Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 9:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTWake Forest Demon Deacons RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
NC State Wolfpack vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
58.3%Wake Forest Demon Deacons
LOCKED Oct 10, 8:31 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Wake Forest Demon Deacons; all four oriented probabilities average 58.25%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line WAKE -3.5 implies ~59-62% win probability for Wake Forest
- Grok: Wake Forest 4-1 record vs NC State 3-2
- Gemini: Wake Forest is a 3.5-point favorite
- GPT: DraftKings market line favors Wake Forest by 3.5 points
Read all four model reports
Claude · Wake Forest Demon Deacons · 60.0%
The supplied DraftKings line has Wake Forest at -3.5, and since the venue is Carter-Finley Stadium (NC State's home), that implies Wake is a road favorite by roughly a field goal a meaningful market signal of a team-strength edge of about 6-7 points on a neutral field. Records corroborate: Wake 4-1 vs NC State 3-2. Historical conversion of a 3.5-point spread to win probability lands near 58-62%, so 60% for Wake Forest is the calibrated read. No injury, efficiency, or situational data is provided to justify deviating from the market-implied baseline.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 5:53 AM PDTGrok · Wake Forest Demon Deacons · 55.0%
Wake Forest enters with the superior 4-1 record versus NC State's 3-2. The DraftKings market line lists Wake as a 3.5-point road favorite, supplying the only direct comparative signal. Carter-Finley Stadium is NC State's home venue, which partially offsets the line and record edge. No rankings are available for either side.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 5:53 AM PDTGemini · Wake Forest Demon Deacons · 63.0%
Wake Forest is favored by 3.5 points on the road at Carter-Finley Stadium. Despite NC State having home-field advantage, the market line and Wake Forest's superior 4-1 record suggest they are the stronger team and more likely to win.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 5:53 AM PDTGPT · Wake Forest Demon Deacons · 55.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Wake Forest has the stronger overall signal despite being on the road. The market line lists Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite, which is the clearest comparative indicator in the package and suggests they are modestly more likely to win outright. Wake Forest also has the better record at 4-1 versus NC State's 3-2. NC State's home venue at Carter-Finley Stadium provides a countervailing factor, keeping the estimate close rather than lopsided. With no rankings and no injury or efficiency data available, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow Wake Forest edge.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 5:53 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports, QB status, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule context
- Opponent quality behind the 3-2 and 4-1 records is unknown
- Single sportsbook line with no closing-line movement or market consensus
- No weather or travel/rest-day details
- Venue field shows NC State's home stadium while the favorite is the visitor home-field adjustment inferred, not stated
- Injuries and depth-chart changes unavailable
- Advanced team efficiency metrics unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
2fdb4f16762f42ba566e5806d725a1c9329c4eae7b2070bddb25f04059eb0661 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9aa054e9a1cc1691d21c0f19755dbaaa4542da3c5d6b5f449b7a638d08e6d979
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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