Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsBoxing · Sep 12, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTOswaldo Molina RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Oswaldo Molina vs Pablo Rubio
50.3%Oswaldo Molina
LOCKED Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 50.28% for Oswaldo Molina. 4/4 models select this fighter. Low confidence; the house still publishes a winner forecast.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Only documented data: 6-round lightweight bout, weights 131.5 vs 131 lb
- Gemini: Scheduled for 6 rounds
- Grok: No documented records or opponent quality
- GPT: Only confirmed bout data are 6 rounds at lightweight and near-identical official weights.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Oswaldo Molina · 51.0%
The only documented facts are the scheduled distance (6 rounds, lightweight) and weigh-in figures (Molina 131.5, Rubio 131). No records, opponent quality, recent form, style, or activity data are available for either fighter. Weight difference of 0.5 lb and round count alone do not establish any skill edge, and no other differentiator is documented. Accordingly this is effectively a coin flip; I name Oswaldo Molina only because a direction is required, at a probability barely above even. Confidence is low given the sparse evidence base.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGemini · Oswaldo Molina · 50.1%
There is no documented evidence regarding the fighters' records, experience, opponent quality, or recent form. With only the scheduled rounds and weigh-in results available, it is impossible to establish a skill advantage for either fighter.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGrok · Oswaldo Molina · 50.0%
No records, opponent histories, recent form, style details, or boxing experience data are supplied in the evidence. Only names, 6-round lightweight bout, and near-identical weigh-in weights (131.5 lb vs 131 lb) are documented. These factors alone establish no skill advantage per instructions. Sparse evidence requires lowest probability and low confidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGPT · Oswaldo Molina · 50.0%
This is essentially a pick’em on the supplied evidence. The only verified pre-fight data are that it is a 6-round lightweight bout and the official weights are nearly identical (131.5 vs 131), which do not establish a meaningful edge. No records, recent form, opponent quality, or style information are provided, so there is no documented basis to separate the fighters. I lean Molina only as a forced direction with the minimum probability conditional on a decisive result.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No verified win-loss records or opponent-adjusted histories
- No injury, camp, or training information
- No style, stance, or knockout-power documentation
- No judges or venue/officiating context
- Direction chosen near coin-flip due to requirement, not evidence
- No records provided
- No opponent history
- No recent form or style information
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
3b8ed86ccaf96c11e723b51cbd59927cfe2b056fb5e49a257b678d7e959c76d8 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
39173e8c90836fee59f0fed144c143cf29ead205e012b8fc1812f2a7766cebb3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Oswaldo Molina defeats Pablo Rubio via unanimous decision (60-54, 59-55, 59-55)
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