Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 9:00 AM PDT FORECASTArizona Wildcats RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Arizona Wildcats
61.0%Arizona Wildcats
LOCKED Oct 10, 8:31 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Arizona Wildcats; all four oriented probabilities average 61%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line ARIZ -3.5 implies roughly 60-63% favorite win probability
- Grok: Arizona 4-1 record vs West Virginia 3-2
- Gemini: Arizona is favored by 3.5 points.
- GPT: Arizona record: 4-1
Read all four model reports
Claude · Arizona Wildcats · 61.0%
The DraftKings line (ARIZ -3.5) is the strongest single signal and implies roughly a 60-63% win probability for the favorite, even accounting for Arizona having to win on the road at Milan Puskar Stadium (the posted road favorite price already embeds the venue adjustment). Records corroborate the direction: Arizona 4-1 versus West Virginia 3-2. With a total of 60.5, the game profile is moderately high-scoring, which slightly widens variance and keeps the underdog's live chance meaningful. No ranking differential, injury report, or efficiency metrics are supplied to justify deviating from the market, so I anchor near the implied price with a small shade toward the home underdog for environment and unmodeled roster news.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 9, 2:23 PM PDTGrok · Arizona Wildcats · 62.0%
Arizona enters with the superior 4-1 record versus West Virginia's 3-2. The DraftKings market line lists Arizona as a 3.5-point road favorite at Milan Puskar Stadium, implying Arizona is the stronger side after adjusting for home-field advantage. No rankings are supplied. These structured facts provide a modest but consistent edge to Arizona.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 9, 2:23 PM PDTGemini · Arizona Wildcats · 62.0%
Arizona is a 3.5-point road favorite against West Virginia. Despite playing away at Milan Puskar Stadium, the market favors the 4-1 Wildcats over the 3-2 Mountaineers, which translates to an implied win probability of approximately 62%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 9, 2:23 PM PDTGPT · Arizona Wildcats · 59.0%
Arizona has the stronger immutable evidence package: a better record (4-1 versus 3-2) and a market line of Arizona -3.5, which indicates Arizona is the expected winner even while playing on the road at West Virginia. West Virginia does have home-field advantage at Milan Puskar Stadium, which narrows the gap, but the supplied comparative signals still lean to Arizona overall. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data available in the evidence package, the estimate should stay moderate rather than aggressive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 9, 2:23 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality context behind the 4-1 and 3-2 records
- Only one sportsbook line supplied; no line-movement or market-consensus history
- No rankings available for either team
- No weather or travel detail for an outdoor October game in Morgantown
- Data current as of 2026-10-09; late-breaking news before kickoff is unaccounted for
- No team rankings or advanced efficiency metrics available
- Injuries and depth-chart details not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
e76c7fa18b3e7acf214face5e73ed945d8c9628689e8e4b20aac543cba2846c9 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ea72faa372be3f11bf6c7d9c9bf7dfba24dee7efb5a585a01bbee46585df89ec
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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