Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsBoxing · Sep 12, 2:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDa'Mazion Vanhouter RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Da'Mazion Vanhouter vs Raphael Akpejiori
65.0%Da'Mazion Vanhouter
LOCKED Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 65% for Da'Mazion Vanhouter. 4/4 models select this fighter. Confidence is limited by the underlying model evidence.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Vanhouter 12-0 undefeated prospect
- Gemini: Vanhouter's undefeated 12-0 record
- Claude: Vanhouter undefeated 12-0, 21, billed as elite US prospect with showcase slot
- GPT: Vanhouter is documented as undefeated at 12-0.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Da'Mazion Vanhouter · 55.0%
Vanhouter enters 12-0 at age 21 as an undefeated American prospect facing his biggest test. Akpejiori is 19-3 at age 35 with 18 KOs. Evidence identifies Vanhouter's opportunity on a major card but supplies no opponent-adjusted records, recent form details, or style comparisons. Weights and 8-round distance alone confer no advantage. Sparse data requires low probability and confidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGemini · Da'Mazion Vanhouter · 80.0%
Da'Mazion Vanhouter is a 21-year-old undefeated prospect (12-0) being showcased on a major undercard. He faces 35-year-old veteran Raphael Akpejiori (19-3, 18 KOs). While Akpejiori has a high knockout rate and a 14.5-pound weight advantage, Vanhouter's youth, momentum, and recent stoppage victories suggest he is being positioned to pass this step-up test. The matchmaking heavily favors the rising prospect.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTClaude · Da'Mazion Vanhouter · 64.0%
Vanhouter is 12-0 at 21, promoted as a top US heavyweight prospect with recent stoppage form (TKO of Murphy, May 2026) and matchmaking control on a major card. Akpejiori, 35, is 19-3 with 18 KOs — a genuine power threat and the stiffest test of Vanhouter's career, but three losses and age suggest he is the graduation opponent rather than the favorite. The 14.5 lb weight edge for Akpejiori is not itself decisive. Eight rounds slightly favors the fresher, more active fighter, though heavyweight power means single-punch risk is real. Opponent-quality detail is absent, so confidence is low.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGPT · Da'Mazion Vanhouter · 61.0%
Vanhouter gets the lean on the supplied evidence: he is an undefeated 12-0 heavyweight prospect, described as one of the more promising American heavyweights, and is coming off documented knockout/TKO wins. Akpejiori’s 19-3 record and 18 KOs show real danger and this is explicitly called Vanhouter’s biggest test. With no opponent-quality breakdown or detailed losses/wins context for either man, the edge is modest. Weight gap and 8-round distance do not by themselves swing it.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 12, 9:19 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No verified opponent quality or adjusted history
- No detailed recent form or style data
- No injury or camp information
- Round count and weights do not establish skill edge
- Lack of detailed opponent quality for both fighters
- No information on Akpejiori's recent form or how he suffered his 3 losses
- No opponent-quality breakdown for either fighter's records
- No data on how/when Akpejiori's three losses occurred
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a3e45927c2a805d27e9d78b9645166c9c5f2c7faa2858da7ed79231c9ba8d09a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3cf47cfac9d2271a3fec3ae59f4e35b2714294481b26821418c886075482c216
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Da’Mazion Vanhouter defeats Raphael Akpejiori via knockout – Round 1, 1:58
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