Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 6:30 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTBianca Andreescu RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Lucie Havlickova vs Bianca Andreescu
60.8%Bianca Andreescu
LOCKED Oct 17, 5:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Bianca Andreescu; all four oriented probabilities average 60.75%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Andreescu season record 29-17 (.630) vs Havlickova 22-21 (.512)
- Gemini: Bianca Andreescu's season record is 29 wins and 17 losses.
- Grok: Andreescu season record 29-17 vs Havlickova 22-21
- GPT: Andreescu has the stronger 2026 season record: 29-17 versus Havlickova's 22-21.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Bianca Andreescu · 62.0%
The only usable supplied facts are 2026 season singles records: Andreescu 29-17 (.630) versus Havlickova 22-21 (.512). That roughly 12-point gap in win rate implies a modest edge for Andreescu, which maps to about a 60-64% match win probability at this level (a WTA 125-tier semifinal where fields are compressed). Neither player has a current rank, ranking points, or titles supplied, so no further differentiation is possible. Surface-specific form, injury/fitness status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling load, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, which caps confidence and keeps the estimate close to the win-rate-implied baseline rather than pushing toward a strong favorite.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDTGemini · Bianca Andreescu · 62.0%
Bianca Andreescu has a superior season win-loss record (29-17, ~63% win rate) compared to Lucie Havlickova (22-21, ~51% win rate). Since current rankings are unavailable for both players, the forecast relies entirely on their season performance. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDTGrok · Bianca Andreescu · 62.0%
Bianca Andreescu holds a superior 2026 season singles record of 29 wins and 17 losses compared to Lucie Havlickova's 22-21 mark. This yields a higher win percentage for Andreescu. No ranking data is supplied for either player. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDTGPT · Bianca Andreescu · 57.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, the main differentiator is 2026 season singles record. Bianca Andreescu is 29-17, while Lucie Havlickova is 22-21. That gives Andreescu both more total wins and a materially better win rate (about 63% vs about 51%). No current rank is available for either player, so ranking cannot separate them. Because this is a semifinal on the WTA tour, both players are likely competitive enough to be here, which argues against an extreme estimate based on record alone. Therefore Andreescu deserves to be favored, but only moderately. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package and cannot be used.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Current rank and ranking points are null for both players
- Surface-specific form not supplied (Rovereto surface unknown in evidence)
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Travel, rest, and prior-round workload not supplied
- Market odds not supplied, so no external price anchor
- Current rankings are not provided for either player.
- Surface-specific form is unavailable.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
79a088a21bdde3832ed4a66839740d687d9fd0a7ca36a73e7aee7151a70691b0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e91e24d8dcfee58b8f987bbdf223444f193b295892fe417e3afaa49ac12b02e0
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Bianca Andreescu (CAN) bt Lucie Havlickova (CZE) 6-3 6-1
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Return to your review →