Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 12, 9:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTLucie Havlickova RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Lucie Havlickova vs Linda Klimovicova
56.5%Lucie Havlickova
LOCKED Oct 12, 7:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Lucie Havlickova; all four oriented probabilities average 56.5%.
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19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Havlickova season record 22-21
- Gemini: Lucie Havlickova's season record is 22-21 (51.2% win rate).
- Claude: Havlickova season record 22-21 (.512) vs Klimovicova 15-19 (.441)
- GPT: Havlickova season singles record: 22-21
Read all four model reports
Grok · Lucie Havlickova · 55.0%
Lucie Havlickova holds a better season singles record (22 wins, 21 losses) than Linda Klimovicova (15 wins, 19 losses), providing the only quantitative basis for a modest edge. Both lack any ranking data. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per the evidence scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 12, 3:10 AM PDTGemini · Lucie Havlickova · 56.0%
Lucie Havlickova has a slightly better season win-loss record (22-21, 51.2%) compared to Linda Klimovicova (15-19, 44.1%). With no ranking data or other contextual factors available, Havlickova is a marginal favorite based purely on her superior win rate.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 12, 3:10 AM PDTClaude · Lucie Havlickova · 57.0%
Only season win-loss records are usable: Havlickova 22-21 (.512) versus Klimovicova 15-19 (.441). Both ranks are null, so the edge rests entirely on a modest difference in win rate over small samples (43 vs 34 matches), with no adjustment for opponent quality. That supports a slight lean to Havlickova, who also has the larger match volume suggesting slightly deeper draws/level. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate stays close to a coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 12, 3:10 AM PDTGPT · Lucie Havlickova · 58.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Lucie Havlickova has the stronger current-season singles record at 22-21 versus Linda Klimovicova at 15-19. Neither player has a supplied current rank, previous rank, or ranking points, so the forecast must rely primarily on season win-loss performance. Havlickova's record is modestly better both in total wins and win percentage, which supports making her the slight favorite, but only by a limited margin because the evidence set is narrow. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, so this estimate remains conservative.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 12, 3:10 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Current ranks unavailable for both
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Neither player has an explicit current rank provided.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points lower for Lucie Havlickova
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
e4b749c704b712a09b718e96d5b56cb8052361ac68fff519d09a842ff9e85199 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
252fd3c22567710aa0f1d08568d5cc7e156af3d25e2a79d274b98b6b7e4e87ab
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
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Recorded outcome: Lucie Havlickova (CZE) bt Linda Klimovicova (POL) 6-4 7-5
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