Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 17, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTKyle Nelson RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez
56.9%Kyle Nelson
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 56.88% for Kyle Nelson. 4/4 models select this fighter.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Perez short notice (about 4 days) and level step-up
- Gemini: Nelson's UFC experience and strength of schedule
- Grok: Nelson UFC experience and recent decision win
- GPT: Nelson has the more proven UFC/major-promotion résumé, with recent wins over known UFC opponents and multiple three-round decision wins.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Kyle Nelson · 51.5%
Near coin flip. Perez is younger, on a finishing run and defensively strong in grappling, but takes the fight on roughly four days notice as a short-notice replacement stepping up in level. Nelson's UFC experience and made-weight camp barely tip it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTGemini · Kyle Nelson · 65.0%
Late context shows the bout was added 4 days out, with Perez as a short-notice replacement (replacing Perez Gonzalez). Both made weight. Nelson's UFC experience against tougher competition and superior striking defense give him the edge over the short-notice Perez.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTGrok · Kyle Nelson · 56.0%
Nelson holds a clear experience edge with multiple UFC bouts and finishes against comparable opposition. Perez shows strong finishing ability and youth but enters on short notice after a late bout addition and replacement, with weaker striking defense. Weigh-ins confirm both made lightweight. Sparse profiles and limited head-to-head context keep the edge modest.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTGPT · Kyle Nelson · 55.0%
Nelson gets a slight lean based on stronger verified UFC-level résumé and more proven ability to win full three-round fights against established opposition. His recent sample includes wins over Fernando Padilla, Bill Algeo, and Matt Frevola, while Perez’s recent record is mostly outside the UFC with one DWCS win and one DWCS loss. The statistical profile is close on the feet: Nelson lands slightly more, Perez is slightly more accurate, and both absorb about the same volume. Perez’s 88% takedown defense and younger age are positives, but his striking defense number is weaker and the quality of opposition is less established in the supplied evidence. The decisive late-context factor is the verified short-notice/opponent-replacement situation for Perez only about 4.2 days before the event; that meaningfully cuts into confidence in a debuting fighter facing a more experienced UFC opponent. I
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No pre-event odds connected
- Confusing replacement entry: Cristian Perez replacing Cristian Perez Gonzalez may be a name/data artifact
- No reach, stance, or detailed opponent-quality context; Perez stats likely from limited sample
- Opponent replacement likely a database name correction
- Perez's UFC stats limited to DWCS
- Missing reach and stance data
- No verified pre-event odds or deeper scouting
- Limited recent fight details beyond outcomes
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
86a91d3e6cd59d14ca5313a045fe273782fa68388a4fff589531e8d8ded179a9
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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