Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 4:00 PM PDT FORECASTArkansas State Red Wolves RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
66.3%Arkansas State Red Wolves
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Arkansas State Red Wolves; all four oriented probabilities average 66.25%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line ARST -6 is the primary comparative signal and is road-favorite status at Southern Miss's home stadium
- Grok: Arkansas State record 2-4 vs Southern Miss 1-4
- Gemini: Arkansas State is a 6-point road favorite
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Arkansas State -6, the strongest comparative signal in the package
Read all four model reports
Claude · Arkansas State Red Wolves · 70.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of ARST -6, which is notable because Arkansas State is laying six points on the road at M. M. Roberts Stadium (Southern Miss home venue), implying a neutral-field edge closer to 8-9 points. Historical conversion of a 6-point closing spread maps to roughly a 69-72% win probability for the favorite. Records (Southern Miss 1-4 vs Arkansas State 2-4) are weakly corroborative of the same direction, and neither team is ranked. I anchor on the market number rather than records, shading only marginally for home-field noise already embedded in the line.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:38 AM PDTGrok · Arkansas State Red Wolves · 62.0%
Arkansas State enters with the superior record (2-4 vs 1-4) and is favored by 6 points on the road per the DraftKings market line. The game is at Southern Miss's home venue, which supplies some countervailing home-field value, but the combination of record edge and spread still points to Arkansas State as the higher-probability winner.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:38 AM PDTGemini · Arkansas State Red Wolves · 69.0%
Arkansas State is favored by 6 points on the road against Southern Miss. With both teams holding losing records, the market line is the strongest indicator, implying approximately a 69% chance of an Arkansas State victory.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:38 AM PDTGPT · Arkansas State Red Wolves · 64.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Arkansas State has the stronger win probability signal. The clearest comparative indicator is the market line: DraftKings lists Arkansas State as a 6-point favorite, which generally implies a meaningful but not overwhelming edge even after accounting for Southern Miss being at home at M. M. Roberts Stadium. Team records also lean slightly toward Arkansas State (2-4 vs 1-4), while neither team is ranked, so rankings add no separation. With limited evidence beyond record, venue, and market price, the best bounded estimate is that Arkansas State wins more often than not, but far from a near-certainty.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:38 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied for either team
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or opponent-adjusted metrics provided
- No recent-form, common-opponent, or conference-record detail beyond raw win-loss
- Single market provider quoted; no line movement or opening-number history
- No weather or travel context for the October road game
- Record quality (strength of schedule) unknown, limiting independent validation of the line
- No team efficiency metrics or advanced stats supplied
- Injury and depth-chart information unavailable
What to watch next
Wait for all required evidence and the pre-event lock. This view is not final.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
92d95f377b7b3c3ce92b624487837319a13b0bdeb85dadeb310e360a8576d15f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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