Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT FORECASTKansas State Wildcats RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Kansas State Wildcats vs Kansas Jayhawks
59.0%Kansas State Wildcats
LOCKED Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Kansas State Wildcats; all four oriented probabilities average 59%.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line KSU -3 implies a modest favorite, consistent with roughly 58-62% win probability
- Grok: Kansas State 3-2 record versus Kansas 2-3
- Gemini: Kansas State is favored by 3 points
- GPT: Kansas State has the better record: 3-2 versus Kansas at 2-3.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Kansas State Wildcats · 60.0%
The DraftKings line of KSU -3 is the strongest comparative signal supplied. A 3-point favorite in college football historically wins roughly 58-62% of the time, and here the spread is reinforced by venue (Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Kansas State's home field) and a modestly better record (3-2 vs 2-3). Neither team is ranked, so no additional separation is implied. With a total of 55.5 suggesting a moderately high-scoring game, variance is somewhat elevated, which pulls the estimate slightly toward the middle rather than higher. I settle near 60% for Kansas State.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 8:23 AM PDTGrok · Kansas State Wildcats · 58.0%
Kansas State enters with the superior record (3-2 vs 2-3) and is installed as a 3-point home favorite at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The combination of home venue and the modest spread supplies the only comparative signal, supporting a modest win probability above 50 percent but well short of a heavy favorite.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 8:23 AM PDTGemini · Kansas State Wildcats · 59.0%
Kansas State is favored by 3 points at home against Kansas. With a 3-2 record compared to Kansas's 2-3, and the standard home-field advantage factored into the -3 spread, the Wildcats have a moderate edge. A 3-point spread typically implies a win probability near 58-60%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 8:23 AM PDTGPT · Kansas State Wildcats · 59.0%
Kansas State has the stronger evidence package on three available comparative signals: the better record (3-2 vs 2-3), home field at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, and a supplied market line of KSU -3. A 3-point home favorite in college football generally indicates only a modest edge rather than a dominant one, so the estimate should stay close to the middle rather than rise into the high 60s or above. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data in scope, the market line and home venue carry most of the forecast weight. That supports Kansas State as the likelier winner, but only by a moderate margin.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 8:23 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule data
- Only one sportsbook line supplied; no line movement or consensus
- Records give no context on quality of opponents faced
- No situational factors (weather, rest, travel, rivalry intensity) included
- No rankings or advanced efficiency metrics supplied
- Injuries and depth-chart changes unavailable
- Evidence limited to structured scoreboard facts and market line
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.8 percentage points lower for Kansas State Wildcats
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
99fc692887cba52ca5433727ee0f3f4cac696487047cf659b284f1ff0d1462bd - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e61e87b62ccfe4df2757ec8f1592cc8328a39defde3f851ab42736f54988f409
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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