Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 18, 1:30 AM PDT FORECASTRafael Jodar RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
60.8%Rafael Jodar
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Rafael Jodar; all four oriented probabilities average 60.75%.
22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 13 vs No. 26 favors Jodar
- Grok: Jodar current rank 13 and 2659 points vs Fokina rank 26 and 1930 points
- Gemini: Rafael Jodar is ranked 13th, 13 spots higher than Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 26th.
- GPT: Rafael Jodar is ranked higher: No. 13 vs No. 26.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Rafael Jodar · 60.0%
Only current ranking and season win-loss records are supplied. Jodar is ranked 13 with 2,659 points and a 38-16 (70%) season record; Davidovich Fokina is ranked 26 with 1,930 points and a 27-16 (63%) record. A 13-place ranking gap and modestly better win rate imply a small-to-moderate edge for Jodar, typically translating to roughly 58-62% in a one-off best-of-three final. Davidovich Fokina has more career titles this season (2 vs 1), tempering the gap. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate is anchored close to a rank-differential baseline rather than pushed toward a confident favorite.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDTGrok · Rafael Jodar · 62.0%
Jodar holds the superior ranking (13 vs 26) and ranking points (2659 vs 1930) along with a stronger season record (38-16 vs 27-16). These supplied facts indicate Jodar as the stronger player for a best-evidence estimate. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDTGemini · Rafael Jodar · 62.0%
Rafael Jodar holds a distinct advantage in both current ATP ranking (13 vs 26) and ranking points (2659 vs 1930). Furthermore, Jodar has a superior season win-loss record, winning 70.4% of his matches (38-16) compared to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's 62.8% (27-16). While Davidovich Fokina has secured one more title this season, Jodar's overall consistency and higher ranking make him the statistical favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDTGPT · Rafael Jodar · 59.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Rafael Jodar has the stronger profile: a higher current ATP rank (13 vs 26), more ranking points (2659 vs 1930), and a better season record by both wins (38 vs 27) and win rate (38-16, about 70%, vs 27-16, about 63%). Those factors support Jodar as the likelier winner, but not overwhelmingly so because both players are ranked solidly and have comparable loss totals. This is a final, so opponent quality may be strong on both sides, and the evidence package explicitly does not provide surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds. With only current rank and season singles results available, a modest edge to Jodar is the most evidence-bounded estimate.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific form or hard-court splits supplied
- No injury or fitness information
- No head-to-head record available
- No travel, rest days, or prior-round scoreline data
- No market odds or implied probabilities
- Indoor/outdoor and conditions context absent
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
What to watch next
Wait for all required evidence and the pre-event lock. This view is not final.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c01653f6857a2c6d70efad87544da9a7426a0a7f368248fed8f0684d95481a1e
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Use this brief for a review →