Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 18, 1:05 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTLos Angeles Rams RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
83.5%Los Angeles Rams
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Los Angeles Rams; all four oriented probabilities average 83.5%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Los Angeles Rams are 12.5-point home favorites
- Grok: LAR 2-3 record and 12.5-point home favorite status
- Claude: Market line LAR -12.5 implies roughly 87-90% home win probability
- GPT: Rams are the home team at SoFi Stadium.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Los Angeles Rams · 87.0%
The Los Angeles Rams are heavily favored by 12.5 points at home against the Arizona Cardinals. A spread of this magnitude in the NFL typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 85-90%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 3:05 PM PDTGrok · Los Angeles Rams · 78.0%
Rams enter at 2-3 with a 12.5-point home spread versus the 1-4 Cardinals. The large market line at SoFi Stadium indicates a substantial talent and situational edge for the home team despite both clubs having losing records early in 2026. No injury data alters the baseline assessment.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 3:05 PM PDTClaude · Los Angeles Rams · 88.0%
DraftKings lists the Rams at -12.5 at home, a large spread that historically converts to roughly an 85-90% win rate for the favorite. Supporting context aligns: Los Angeles is at home in SoFi Stadium with a 2-3 record versus Arizona's 1-4, so both the market and the records point the same direction. No injury or weather data is supplied to adjust the baseline, so I anchor near the market-implied figure with a small haircut for NFL single-game variance.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 3:05 PM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Rams · 81.0%
The supplied evidence supports the Rams as a clear favorite. Los Angeles is at home, has the better record (2-3 vs. Arizona’s 1-4), and the market spread is Rams -12.5, which is strong comparative evidence that the Rams are materially more likely to win outright. With no conflicting facts in the package, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a substantial Rams win probability. Because no moneyline, quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail is available, the estimate should not be pushed to extreme certainty, but the spread is strong enough to make Los Angeles the clear choice.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 3:05 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided in the evidence
- Injury reports are currently empty and may be incomplete
- Weather data is missing, though SoFi Stadium is a covered venue
- No quarterback or injury details supplied
- Market line is the primary comparative signal; actual win probability could shift with roster updates
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than clean bills of health
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation provided
- No moneyline prices supplied, so implied probability is inferred from the spread only
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
2387f20d472d2d69d2067b3cec762bbdffb4463707cf2382d9fae3655ca9909f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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