Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 5:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTUtah Utes RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Utah Utes vs Kansas Jayhawks
86.3%Utah Utes
LOCKED Oct 10, 4:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Utah Utes; all four oriented probabilities average 86.25%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Utah is favored by 15.5 points
- Grok: Utah 4-0 record and #12 ranking vs Kansas 2-2 unranked
- Claude: DraftKings line UTAH -15.5 implies ~88% win probability for Utah
- GPT: Utah is 4-0 while Kansas is 2-2
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Utah Utes · 88.0%
Utah is an undefeated 4-0 team ranked 12th in the nation, playing at home at Rice-Eccles Stadium. The market line favors Utah by 15.5 points over a 2-2 unranked Kansas team, which translates to a high implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGrok · Utah Utes · 85.0%
Utah enters at 4-0 with a #12 ranking while Kansas is 2-2 and unranked. Utah is a 15.5-point home favorite at Rice-Eccles Stadium. The combination of undefeated record, national ranking, and substantial home spread produces a strong edge for the Utes.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTClaude · Utah Utes · 88.0%
Utah is a 15.5-point home favorite at Rice-Eccles, is undefeated at 4-0, and is nationally ranked No. 12, while Kansas is unranked at 2-2. A home spread of -15.5 historically converts to roughly an 87-90% straight-up win probability, and the fundamental indicators (record, ranking, venue) all point the same direction with no offsetting signal for Kansas. I anchor on the market line and see no supplied evidence justifying a material deviation.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGPT · Utah Utes · 84.0%
Utah has the stronger evidence package on every supplied comparative signal: a better record (4-0 vs 2-2), a national ranking (#12 vs unranked), home field at Rice-Eccles Stadium, and a substantial market line of Utah -15.5. A spread of this size generally implies Utah is the clear favorite to win outright, and the other supplied facts align with that view. Because the immutable evidence package does not include injuries, quarterback availability, opponent strength, or advanced efficiency, the estimate should remain evidence-bounded rather than extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports available
- Advanced team efficiency metrics are missing
- Weather conditions are not provided
- No injury or depth-chart data supplied
- No advanced efficiency or opponent-adjusted metrics available
- Evidence limited to records, ranking, and spread at data_current_at 2026-10-10
- No injury, quarterback status, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule data for either team
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f048d580446354f019bc919d7c869a8f0839613be7debc4cb8e5e519c6748039 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
7dfbe1c0217cb68d69b1be6016fa53a33995adaae9d9f93aebdb9612f5a7d4c0
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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