Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTHouston Texans RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK69.5% Simple average69.5% Calibrated average71.3% Kalshi75.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
69.5%Houston Texans
LOCKED Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Houston Texans; all four oriented probabilities average 69.5%.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line HOU -6.5 as the road team implies a sizable talent/efficiency gap
- Gemini: Houston is a 6.5-point road favorite.
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Houston Texans -6.5
- Grok: Identical 0-4 records for both teams
Read all four model reports
Claude · Houston Texans · 72.0%
The only differentiating evidence is the DraftKings line: Houston -6.5 on the road. A 6.5-point favorite historically wins roughly 70-74% of the time, and being favored by nearly a touchdown away from home implies an even larger neutral-field edge (~9-10 points). Both teams carry identical 0-4 records, so the record provides no tiebreak, and the market is the superior aggregator of roster/efficiency information. The very low total (37.5) slightly increases variance-driven upset risk in a low-scoring game, nudging the estimate marginally below the raw spread-implied figure.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 7:10 AM PDTGemini · Houston Texans · 73.0%
Despite both teams entering the game with 0-4 records, the Houston Texans are favored by 6.5 points on the road. In the NFL, a 6.5-point spread typically translates to a win probability of approximately 72% to 75%. The low over/under of 37.5 suggests a lower-scoring game, which can slightly increase variance, but the market clearly views Houston as the superior team.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 7:10 AM PDTGPT · Houston Texans · 71.0%
The strongest usable comparative evidence is the market spread: Houston is listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. In NFL games, a favorite of that size generally wins substantially more often than not, and the fact that Houston is favored despite being on the road is a meaningful signal of relative team strength. Both teams are 0-4, so records alone do not separate them. With no quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail available, the spread should carry most of the forecast weight. That supports Houston as the more likely winner, with an estimated win probability around the low 70s.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 7:10 AM PDTGrok · Houston Texans · 62.0%
Both teams enter at 0-4 with no other performance metrics supplied. The DraftKings market line lists HOU -6.5 on the road, indicating the betting market views Houston as the stronger side despite identical records and a neutral venue. This spread implies a win probability in the low-60s for the favored team. No injury data, quarterback information, or prior-season results are available to refine the estimate further.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 7:10 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices supplied; win probability derived from spread conversion only
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback or depth-chart information provided
- No weather data for an outdoor-capable Nashville venue
- No point-differential, efficiency, or recent-form detail beyond identical records
- No moneyline odds were provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury reports or player availability details are available.
- Weather conditions are unknown.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 8.3 percentage points higher for Houston Texans
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
3d3fcccb3b952414d7d76108425551e46f24abaaaf5e73a421c76e0324f0afbc - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3ac180e72ade2873b051d199a08388903ee15dc5860ddb8db7e8953cc1b4b939
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Houston Texans. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
b801bca4366eb26e7313c299e9026c532de4b374c041e9aa549c2353f0a4e720Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3
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