Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDuke Blue Devils RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Duke Blue Devils
64.3%Duke Blue Devils
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Duke Blue Devils; all four oriented probabilities average 64.25%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line DUKE -4.5 implies roughly 63-68% win probability for Duke
- Grok: Duke 4-0 record vs Georgia Tech 1-3 record
- Gemini: Duke's 4-0 record compared to Georgia Tech's 1-3 record
- GPT: Duke record: 4-0
Read all four model reports
Claude · Duke Blue Devils · 65.0%
The DraftKings line has Duke at -4.5 on the road at Bobby Dodd Stadium, which is the single most informative supplied signal. A 4.5-point favorite in college football historically converts to roughly a 63-68% win probability. The record pairing (Georgia Tech 1-3 listed first, Duke 4-0 listed second) aligns with the market, reinforcing Duke as the stronger side despite ceding home-field advantage; a road favorite of this size implies a notable talent/form gap. Neither team is ranked, so no additional separation signal exists. I settle at 65% for Duke, near the straight line-implied figure, with a small haircut for Georgia Tech's home environment and the inherent volatility of a single-game, four-week-sample conference matchup.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTGrok · Duke Blue Devils · 62.0%
Duke enters at 4-0 while Georgia Tech is 1-3. The market line shows Duke favored by 4.5 points despite playing on the road at Bobby Dodd Stadium, supplying the only quantitative comparative signal. No rankings are available. The combination of superior record and road-favorite status supports a moderate edge for Duke.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTGemini · Duke Blue Devils · 66.0%
Duke is undefeated at 4-0 and is favored by 4.5 points on the road against a 1-3 Georgia Tech team. The market line implies a win probability of roughly 66% for the Blue Devils.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTGPT · Duke Blue Devils · 64.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Duke has the stronger pregame profile: a 4-0 record versus Georgia Tech’s 1-3 record, and the market line lists Duke as a 4.5-point favorite despite playing on the road at Bobby Dodd Stadium. A road favorite of this size generally indicates the market views Duke as the better team by a meaningful but not overwhelming margin. The home-field edge for Georgia Tech tempers the estimate somewhat, and there are no rankings or deeper team-quality metrics provided to justify a more aggressive probability. On balance, the available evidence supports Duke as the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports, depth-chart status, or quarterback availability provided
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule context
- Record-to-team mapping inferred from side ordering, not explicitly labeled
- Single market snapshot with no line movement or opening-number history
- No weather, rest-days, or travel detail supplied
- Market line timestamp is near kickoff but late scratches could be unreflected
- No advanced efficiency metrics or injury data supplied
- Rankings both null
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 4.4 percentage points lower for Duke Blue Devils
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
2aa89a33049aa647216ace844296256df167d739fc3ef90376d3560b248f58d5 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ffc474dcf55c48000a477db5416f80ddc539920f4a624c1b43deab90e98433df
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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