Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 13, 10:35 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNikola Bartunkova RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK58.0% Simple average58.0% Calibrated average58.7% Kalshi56.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Nikola Bartunkova vs Jasmine Paolini
58.0%Nikola Bartunkova
LOCKED Oct 13, 9:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Nikola Bartunkova; all four oriented probabilities average 58%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Bartunkova is ranked 29th, slightly ahead of Paolini at 33rd.
- Claude: Bartunkova ranked 29 vs Paolini 33; 1661 vs 1528 ranking points
- Grok: Bartunkova current rank 29 beats Paolini rank 33
- GPT: Current rank favors Nikola Bartunkova: 29 vs 33
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Nikola Bartunkova · 62.0%
Nikola Bartunkova enters this match with a slightly higher ranking (29 vs 33) and a significantly better season record. Bartunkova has amassed 38 wins to 21 losses (a 64.4% win rate) and is trending upward in the rankings. In contrast, Jasmine Paolini has a 17-15 record (53.1% win rate) and has recently dropped from rank 20 to 33. The combination of higher match volume, better win percentage, and positive ranking momentum makes Bartunkova the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Nikola Bartunkova · 58.0%
The supplied facts give Bartunkova a narrow edge on every available dimension: a slightly better current rank (29 vs 33), more ranking points (1661 vs 1528), upward ranking momentum (34 to 29 versus Paolini's slide from 20 to 33), and a stronger season record (38-21, .644 win rate, over 59 matches) than Paolini's 17-15 (.531 over 32 matches). Neither has a title this season. The rank and points gaps are small, so the implied edge is modest rather than decisive, and ranking-plus-record models alone are weak discriminators between adjacent top-40 players. Surface-specific form, injury/fitness status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling load, and market odds are explicitly not supplied and were not used. I therefore anchor near a slight favorite line rather than a confident one.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGrok · Nikola Bartunkova · 56.0%
Nikola Bartunkova holds the superior current rank (29 vs 33), higher ranking points (1661 vs 1528), and a stronger season singles record (38-21 vs 17-15). These supplied facts indicate a modest edge for Bartunkova. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Nikola Bartunkova · 56.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Nikola Bartunkova has a modest edge. She is currently ranked higher than Jasmine Paolini (29 vs 33), has more ranking points (1661 vs 1528), and has the stronger 2026 singles record (38-21 vs 17-15). Bartunkova is also moving up from her previous rank (34 to 29), while Paolini has moved down (20 to 33), which slightly reinforces Bartunkova’s current edge. However, the ranking gap is small and the evidence package explicitly does not provide surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds, all of which could materially affect this match. Based on the limited but usable facts, Bartunkova should be favored, though only moderately.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form is not supplied.
- Information regarding injuries is unavailable.
- Head-to-head records are not provided.
- Travel fatigue and market odds are absent.
- Surface-specific (hard-court) form not supplied
- Injury, illness, and retirement history unavailable
- Head-to-head record unavailable
- Travel and scheduling/rest load unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.8 percentage points higher for Nikola Bartunkova
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
154f94405cd3655d6da2596f908c7ce9826f3396075cbb10372bcd1a74926fd5 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a4fb85fabc8381e1b5028cf02c8d9f8da9c50124fa114fbe65237c74225a28f9
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Nikola Bartunkova. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 9:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 8:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 9:04 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
e8c4535d7f39dfa20d0cd66dc562d980620f29ff5546b726587750945fbea1c4Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (15) Jasmine Paolini (ITA) bt Nikola Bartunkova (CZE) 7-6 (7-5) 6-3
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