Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 3:00 PM PDT FORECASTOregon State Beavers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Oregon State Beavers vs San Diego State Aztecs
83.8%Oregon State Beavers
LOCKED Oct 10, 2:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Oregon State Beavers; all four oriented probabilities average 83.75%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Oregon State is a 14.5-point favorite
- Claude: Market line ORST -14.5 implies roughly 86-90% outright win probability
- GPT: Market line: Oregon State -14.5, the strongest indicator in the evidence package
- Grok: Oregon State 3-2 record and 14.5-point home spread
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Oregon State Beavers · 86.0%
Oregon State is favored by 14.5 points at home against San Diego State. A spread of this magnitude typically implies a win probability of around 85-87%. The Beavers also hold a slightly better record (3-2) than the Aztecs (2-3) and benefit from home-field advantage at Reser Stadium.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 2:23 PM PDTClaude · Oregon State Beavers · 88.0%
The DraftKings line of ORST -14.5 at home (Reser Stadium) is the strongest available signal and implies a dominant favorite. Historically, home favorites of roughly two touchdowns in FBS win outright close to 85-90% of the time. Oregon State's 3-2 record versus San Diego State's 2-3 is directionally consistent with the market, and the host-site advantage reinforces it. With a total of 52.5, scoring environment is moderate, which slightly favors the better team covering/winning rather than variance-heavy shootout outcomes. No rankings are provided for either side, so the market line carries nearly all the comparative weight.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 2:23 PM PDTGPT · Oregon State Beavers · 79.0%
Oregon State is the stronger side in the immutable evidence package. The Beavers have the better record (3-2 vs 2-3), are playing at Reser Stadium, and the supplied market line has Oregon State favored by 14.5 points. Among the provided facts, that market spread is the strongest comparative signal and implies a clear win expectancy edge for Oregon State. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data available, the estimate should remain evidence-bounded rather than overly precise, but the available signals support Oregon State as a substantial favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 2:23 PM PDTGrok · Oregon State Beavers · 82.0%
Oregon State enters with a superior 3-2 record versus San Diego State's 2-3, hosts the game at Reser Stadium, and is favored by 14.5 points on the DraftKings line. A double-digit home spread in FBS typically maps to an 80-plus percent win probability for the favorite when no contradictory signals are present.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 2:23 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced efficiency metrics
- No injury reports or depth chart changes provided
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) available
- No strength-of-schedule context for the 3-2 and 2-3 records
- Single sportsbook line; no market consensus or line-movement history
- No weather or travel-fatigue details
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.0 percentage points lower for Oregon State Beavers
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
c76644ce9902ae515d82c489ec44d906873658210cdcafbc13cc4b306d86c06a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
82cd04a8de1f90f2f633816cf0f13d682f13b34e6166f0815ef6c726c6f38761
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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