Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTBuffalo Bills RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK74.0% Simple average74.0% Calibrated average76.2% Kalshi74.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
74.0%Buffalo Bills
LOCKED Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Buffalo Bills; all four oriented probabilities average 74%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line of BUF -7 implies roughly a 72-76% home win probability
- Gemini: Buffalo Bills are undefeated at 3-0
- Grok: Bills 3-0 record vs Patriots 1-2
- GPT: Buffalo is 3-0 while New England is 1-2.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Buffalo Bills · 74.0%
Buffalo is a 7-point home favorite per DraftKings, which historically converts to roughly a 72-76% win probability for the favorite. The market line is reinforced by the team records: Buffalo is 3-0 while New England is 1-2, and the game is at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park with Buffalo holding home-field advantage. No injury or quarterback-status information is supplied for either side, and no weather data is available, so there is no evidence to move off the market-implied baseline. I settle at 74%, consistent with a standard -7 home favorite and supportive record differential.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 2, 10:25 AM PDTGemini · Buffalo Bills · 75.0%
The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 and playing at home against the 1-2 New England Patriots. The market favors the Bills by 7 points, which typically translates to a win probability of around 75%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 2, 10:25 AM PDTGrok · Buffalo Bills · 73.0%
Buffalo enters at 3-0 while New England is 1-2. The game is at Highmark Stadium and the market line shows Buffalo favored by 7 points, consistent with a clear home-team edge based on the supplied records and spread.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 2, 10:25 AM PDTGPT · Buffalo Bills · 74.0%
Buffalo has the stronger evidence-based profile in the package: a 3-0 record versus New England’s 1-2 record, home field at Highmark Stadium, and a DraftKings market spread of Bills -7. A full touchdown home spread in the NFL typically implies a clear favorite, and the team records are directionally consistent with that pricing. With no quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury information available, the estimate should stay bounded rather than extreme, but Buffalo is the justified pick from the supplied evidence.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 2, 10:25 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; availability reports may not yet be published
- No quarterback or starter confirmation for either side
- Weather data is null for an early-October outdoor game in Orchard Park
- No away or home moneyline provided; probability derived from spread conversion
- No efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality context behind the 3-0 and 1-2 records
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread
- No injury information is available
- Weather conditions are not provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.5 percentage points higher for Buffalo Bills
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
e4381729da8b4edc737ca4a1590458b867fd5482f30431f8ba46c811b0cd9537 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9089cea563078c584613fd20c05c07e9fa959edf1dfc2cded13b99c1a11aa25f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Buffalo Bills. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
5d1337fb139317f68aff884580703137b676ac7efc42e0c85f3279edd7d61609Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26
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