Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTLos Angeles Rams RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK59.5% Simple average59.5% Calibrated average60.4% Kalshi64.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles
59.5%Los Angeles Rams
LOCKED Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Los Angeles Rams; all four oriented probabilities average 59.5%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Market spread favors Rams by 3.5 points
- Gemini: Market spread favors the Rams by 3.5 points
- Claude: DraftKings line LAR -3.5 means Rams favored on the road, implying a sizable market edge (~2 pts after home-field adjustment)
- GPT: DraftKings spread shows Los Angeles Rams -3.5, indicating they are the stronger side on current market expectation
Read all four model reports
Grok · Los Angeles Rams · 53.0%
Rams enter at 1-2 while Eagles are 2-1, but the DraftKings market line lists LAR -3.5 on the road, implying the oddsmakers view Los Angeles as the stronger side. Home-field advantage and the one-win record edge favor Philadelphia, yet the spread evidence outweighs those factors by a slim margin in an otherwise data-sparse early-season matchup. No injury or quarterback details are supplied.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 1, 4:10 PM PDTGemini · Los Angeles Rams · 64.0%
The Los Angeles Rams are favored by 3.5 points on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. Historically, a 3.5-point NFL favorite has an implied win probability of approximately 63-65%. Despite the Rams' 1-2 record compared to the Eagles' 2-1 start, the betting market indicates Los Angeles is the stronger team.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 1, 4:10 PM PDTClaude · Los Angeles Rams · 63.0%
The only direct comparative pricing signal is the DraftKings spread of LAR -3.5, with the Rams favored despite playing in Philadelphia. A 3.5-point favorite typically converts to roughly 64-67% win probability; the low total (42.5) nudges that marginally higher since fewer possessions reduce upset variance. The records (PHI 2-1 vs LAR 1-2) point the other way, but three-game samples are weak evidence relative to a closing-style market line, which already incorporates roster quality, availability, and venue. I shade slightly down from a pure spread conversion to acknowledge the record conflict and the unknown injury picture, landing near 63%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 1, 4:10 PM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Rams · 58.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market spread: DraftKings lists the Rams as 3.5-point favorites on the road (LAR -3.5). A road favorite of that size generally implies the Rams are more likely than not to win outright, even though Philadelphia has the better early record (2-1 vs 1-2) and home field. The records matter, but a current market line is usually the more informative point-in-time signal because it aggregates broader team-strength expectations. Balancing the Rams' market edge against the Eagles' home venue and better record yields an evidence-bounded estimate of 58% for Los Angeles to win.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 1, 4:10 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No quarterback or injury information provided
- Market line is spread only; no moneyline probabilities given
- Injury reports noted as potentially incomplete
- No team strength ratings or historical matchup data
- No moneyline odds provided, requiring an estimation from the point spread
- Missing injury and weather data
- Early season game where records may be noisy
- No moneyline prices provided; conversion from spread only
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
337347ab56470f26028da1b3306f0c7d9e70c472a07845c2d5c777bf85da676a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
b8fd27226f0a76993ea5a308e14a4071747d5976bc35c51f3455d9f0d797608b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Los Angeles Rams. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
400a6076aac895c7be667dc2584742576963707ed7d3a24bb9f22896bf5871bbAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20
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