Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTFederico Cina RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK71.3% Simple average71.3% Calibrated average73.2% Kalshi55.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Federico Cina vs Joel Josef Schwaerzler
71.3%Federico Cina
LOCKED Oct 17, 3:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Federico Cina; all four oriented probabilities average 71.25%.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
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Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Cina holds an explicit ATP rank of 147 with 383 points; Schwaerzler's rank and points are null in the supplied data
- Gemini: Federico Cina is ranked 147th in the world.
- Grok: Cina ATP rank 147 vs Schwaerzler unranked
- GPT: Federico Cina is explicitly ranked No. 147; Joel Josef Schwaerzler has no current rank supplied in the package.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Federico Cina · 60.0%
Only two usable facts distinguish these players: Cina carries an explicit ATP ranking of No. 147 (383 points, improved from 150) while Schwaerzler has no rank or ranking points supplied, which weakly implies a lower or unlisted ranking. Both have poor tour-level records in the supplied data (Cina 2-8, Schwaerzler 0-2), but those samples are tiny and reflect main-draw matches against stronger fields, not qualifying form. A ranked player versus one with no supplied ranking in an ATP 250 qualifying round justifies a modest edge only. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate stays close to a coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDTGemini · Federico Cina · 80.0%
Federico Cina holds an ATP ranking of 147, whereas Joel Josef Schwaerzler is currently unranked. Cina also has more match experience this season with 2 wins, compared to Schwaerzler who is winless in 2 matches. The significant ranking gap makes Cina the clear favorite, though both players have losing records.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDTGrok · Federico Cina · 78.0%
Cina holds an explicit ATP rank of 147 with 383 ranking points and a 2-8 season record, while Schwaerzler has no rank or points listed and a 0-2 record. This ranking and experience gap supports selecting Cina as the stronger player in a best-evidence estimate. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDTGPT · Federico Cina · 67.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Federico Cina has the clearly stronger current ranking profile and a slightly better season record base. Cina is ranked No. 147 with 383 ranking points and has moved up from No. 150, while Joel Josef Schwaerzler has no explicit current rank or ranking points listed in the package. The season records supplied are weak for both players, with Cina at 2-8 and Schwaerzler at 0-2, so the win-loss data alone is limited and low-sample. Given the available facts, the ranking gap and presence of established ATP ranking points make Cina the evidence-bounded favorite, but not overwhelmingly so because both players' season records are poor and sparse. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific or recent-form data supplied
- No injury or fitness information available
- No head-to-head record provided
- No travel or scheduling context
- No market odds or implied probabilities supplied
- Schwaerzler's missing rank may be a data gap rather than evidence of a genuinely low ranking
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Both players have limited success this season, making form difficult to evaluate.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.8 percentage points lower for Federico Cina
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
eb8b0282eecfaccfa5c9a340fb5ac8fa2264aac6865f1a62466d09805a80e2a5 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
1fdbcbae49f59649f8fa69d7e0c278aea65aa3a79c5958c49f3981b8f8eb3d02
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Federico Cina. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 3:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 2:55 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 3:00 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
7c376318e1de7ea26053b53e7a23210398bab60fe5d8af2c3646dd7fb9d5e486Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Federico Cina (ITA) bt Joel Josef Schwaerzler (AUT) 6-3 7-6 (7-4)
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