Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 13, 5:20 PM PDT FORECASTDallas Cowboys RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
58.8%Dallas Cowboys
LOCKED Sep 13, 4:50 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Dallas Cowboys; all four oriented probabilities average 58.75%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings market line DAL -3 makes Dallas a road favorite
- Grok: Market line DAL -3 implies Cowboys are favored
- Gemini: Dallas is favored by 3 points on the road.
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Dallas -3
Read all four model reports
Claude · Dallas Cowboys · 58.0%
Only usable comparative signal is the DraftKings line of DAL -3 in a Week 1 game at MetLife with both teams 0-0. A road favorite of 3 implies roughly a 4.5-5 point neutral-field edge, which historically converts to about a 57-60% win probability. No moneylines are supplied to refine the implied price, and no injury, quarterback, or weather data is available, so I anchor near the standard spread-to-win-probability conversion without further adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 11, 3:25 AM PDTGrok · Dallas Cowboys · 58.0%
The only comparative evidence is the DraftKings market line listing DAL -3 at the Giants home stadium. In NFL terms a 3-point road favorite typically carries a 56-60% outright win probability. Both teams enter at 0-0 with no other performance, injury, or roster data supplied, so the market line is the sole quantitative anchor.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 11, 3:25 AM PDTGemini · Dallas Cowboys · 60.0%
The Dallas Cowboys are 3-point road favorites against the New York Giants. A 3-point spread typically translates to a win probability of around 60% for the favored team. Being Week 1, there is inherent uncertainty, but the market clearly favors Dallas.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 11, 3:25 AM PDTGPT · Dallas Cowboys · 59.0%
Dallas is the best-supported favorite in the evidence package. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings market line of Cowboys -3, and the game is at the Giants, so the market is still making Dallas the stronger team despite New York's home field. In Week 1 both teams are 0-0, there is no usable record-based separation, and no weather or injury information adds further edge. A 3-point road favorite typically implies a modest but clear win probability above 50%, so the evidence-bounded estimate is Dallas around 59%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 11, 3:25 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices provided, so implied probability must be inferred from the spread
- Injury lists empty for both teams: likely incomplete pre-Week-1 reporting, not confirmed full health
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation
- Weather is null for an outdoor MetLife Stadium game
- No prior-season records, ratings, or roster-change context supplied
- Line captured ~3 days pre-kickoff; could move before the game
- No team records, advanced stats, or roster details available
- Injury reports listed as empty and may be incomplete
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
3d6d2cac5258a094d0dffe4bc82f3731624b2c062641076df92f6fdbfcd6a224 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
103079040c48214879b15b0ccab0fdd0343783b73b419ae9d2023e9b35fca1e1
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Use this brief for a review →