Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 12, 5:15 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTLos Angeles Rams RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK61.3% Simple average61.3% Calibrated average62.3% Kalshi62.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams
61.3%Los Angeles Rams
LOCKED Oct 12, 4:45 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Los Angeles Rams; all four oriented probabilities average 61.25%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: LAR home underdog status at -3.5
- Gemini: Los Angeles Rams are favored by 3.5 points.
- Claude: DraftKings line LAR -3.5 implies roughly a 64-66% home win probability
- GPT: DraftKings lists Los Angeles Rams -3.5, making the Rams the clearest favorite in the package.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Los Angeles Rams · 56.0%
Rams enter at 2-2 hosting a 3-1 Bills team and are favored by 3.5 points on the provided market line. The spread implies a modest home-edge advantage that outweighs the one-game difference in record at this early point in the 2026 season. No contradictory facts appear in the package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 12, 3:15 PM PDTGemini · Los Angeles Rams · 64.0%
The Los Angeles Rams are favored by 3.5 points at home against the Buffalo Bills. A -3.5 point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of around 63-65% for the favorite, outweighing the Bills' slightly better early-season record.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 12, 3:15 PM PDTClaude · Los Angeles Rams · 64.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of LAR -3.5 at home with a 55.5 total. A 3.5-point home favorite historically wins roughly 62-67% of the time; the high total slightly compresses the edge by increasing variance. Buffalo's better record (3-1 vs 2-2) is already embedded in the market price, and records at week 5 are noisy and strength-of-schedule unadjusted, so I do not override the line. I anchor on the market and settle near 64% for Los Angeles, a modest step toward even to respect the thin supporting evidence and absence of injury/QB confirmation.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 12, 3:15 PM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Rams · 61.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market spread: the Rams are listed as 3.5-point home favorites at SoFi Stadium. In NFL pricing, a favorite of that size generally implies a clear but not overwhelming win probability, typically around the low-60s. The Bills’ better record (3-1 vs. 2-2) is a counterweight, but records this early in the season are weaker evidence than a current market line that aggregates broad information. With no usable quarterback, injury, or weather adjustments supplied, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that Los Angeles wins somewhat more often than not.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 12, 3:15 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or quarterback details supplied
- Moneyline odds absent; spread is only pricing signal
- Weather and travel factors not reported
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury information is available, which could significantly impact the matchup.
- No moneyline odds supplied; probability inferred from spread conversion
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback status or depth-chart confirmation
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f8f0eb96fde5404b12c9f2d63e15822671294f4ca365bd6ab0faef693735ee64 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
caddecd3364936b4420aa9dcdab42d4def64e904d2d2edc77da4c0fbd116dd6a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Los Angeles Rams. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 12, 4:45 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 12, 4:40 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 12, 4:49 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
70ca32ad8af4101e60dc85e8c5d05b8ad9bf95ddf85e574c24293a03e8980077Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34
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