Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 4:05 AM PDT FORECASTDominika Salkova RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Dominika Salkova vs Martyna Kubka
57.0%Dominika Salkova
LOCKED Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Dominika Salkova; all four oriented probabilities average 57%.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Salkova explicit rank 120 vs Kubka null rank
- Claude: Salkova holds an explicit rank of 120 with 614 points; Kubka's rank is null in the supplied data
- Gemini: Dominika Salkova is ranked 120th in the world.
- GPT: Dominika Salkova has an explicit current rank of No. 120.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Dominika Salkova · 55.0%
Salkova holds an explicit WTA rank of 120 with 614 ranking points while Kubka has null rank and null points. Salkova's 26-26 record is inferior to Kubka's 43-18, yet the presence of a top-150 ranking supplies the only available hierarchy signal. No surface, injury, H2H, travel or odds data exist in the package, so the estimate remains tightly bounded to rank versus raw win-loss differential.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDTClaude · Dominika Salkova · 56.0%
Salkova is the only player with an explicit current ranking (No. 120, improved from 126, 614 points), which implies a tour level above an unranked opponent in the supplied data, and ranking is typically the strongest single predictor available. However, Kubka's season record (43-18, .705) is far stronger than Salkova's break-even 26-26, though such a record is usually accumulated at lower-tier events where win rates inflate. These signals partly offset, leaving only a small lean to the ranked player at this WTA 125-level semifinal. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in the evidence package, so this estimate is deliberately close to a coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDTGemini · Dominika Salkova · 65.0%
Dominika Salkova holds a solid WTA ranking of 120, indicating she regularly competes at a high level. While Martyna Kubka has an impressive 43-18 season record compared to Salkova's 26-26, Kubka's lack of a provided ranking suggests her wins likely come from lower-tier tournaments. Salkova's established ranking makes her the favorite, though Kubka's high win volume warrants caution.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDTGPT · Dominika Salkova · 52.0%
This is a close call based only on the supplied immutable evidence. Dominika Salkova has the clearly stronger documented current ranking signal: No. 120 with a small improvement from No. 126. Martyna Kubka’s season win-loss record is stronger at 43-18 versus Salkova’s 26-26, but Kubka has no supplied current rank or ranking points in the evidence package, which limits comparability. Because ranking is an explicit cross-field measure of standing and Salkova’s rank is the strongest directly comparable quality indicator available, I give her a narrow edge, while keeping the estimate near toss-up due to Kubka’s much better season record. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Evidence limited to ESPN rank and season W-L only
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a54a31fd18f3cd7fc681a8202689f18c2c7b7aa7cea577420c14032de6a437b0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
eef31c2d511972688031aebfa54d7446d3255b5eae518bb34e1b69c580aa3305
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
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Recorded outcome: (6) Dominika Salkova (CZE) bt Martyna Kubka (POL) 1-6 7-5 6-3
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