Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 9, 6:00 PM PDT FORECASTWashington Huskies RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Washington Huskies vs Iowa Hawkeyes
58.9%Washington Huskies
LOCKED Oct 9, 5:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Washington Huskies; all four oriented probabilities average 58.88%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Washington is favored by 3 points (WASH -3).
- Claude: Market line WASH -3 implies roughly 59-61% home win probability
- Grok: Washington favored by 3 at home
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Washington -3, indicating Washington is the expected winner by a small margin.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Washington Huskies · 60.5%
Despite Iowa having a better record (4-1) and a top-25 ranking (#20), the betting market favors the unranked Washington Huskies by 3 points at home. A 3-point home favorite typically translates to roughly a 60% win probability, reflecting home-field advantage and underlying team strength not captured by raw records.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 9, 12:53 PM PDTClaude · Washington Huskies · 60.0%
The DraftKings line of WASH -3 at Husky Stadium is the most informative single signal. A 3-point home favorite in college football historically wins roughly 58-62% of the time, and the low total (40.5) slightly compresses variance in favor of the favorite but not dramatically. Washington's weaker record (3-2 vs 4-1) and Iowa's No. 20 ranking are already embedded in the market price, which nets to a modest Huskies edge driven by home field and presumably stronger underlying efficiency than the raw record suggests. With no injury, depth-chart, or advanced-metric data to justify deviating from the market, I anchor near the line-implied probability.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 9, 12:53 PM PDTGrok · Washington Huskies · 57.0%
Washington hosts Iowa at Husky Stadium and is favored by 3 points per the DraftKings market line despite a 3-2 record versus Iowa's 4-1 mark and #20 ranking. The spread and home venue supply the primary comparative signal favoring Washington; the over/under of 40.5 is noted but not decisive for win probability.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 9, 12:53 PM PDTGPT · Washington Huskies · 58.0%
Washington gets the nod primarily from the supplied market signal and home venue. The immutable evidence shows Washington favored by 3 points at Husky Stadium, which is a meaningful comparative indicator in a game between relatively credible teams. Iowa has the better record (4-1 vs 3-2) and is ranked #20 while Washington is unranked in the package, which pushes the estimate back toward competitive rather than decisive. Balancing those facts, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that Washington is a modest favorite, not a strong one.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 9, 12:53 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency metrics or injury reports are provided.
- Weather conditions and specific matchup advantages are unknown.
- No injury or availability reports provided
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FEI, or strength-of-schedule data
- No head-to-head history or recent form detail beyond win-loss records
- Single sportsbook line with no price (moneyline) or line-movement context
- Opponent quality behind the 3-2 and 4-1 records is unknown
- No injury or depth-chart data
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
c3700d496620657fccbc43b7d7f0d5ccb5da0b1840c39524cd8b234d03a5683e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
0f5de82d58ce57b166d256a2650ca78db195af8ec8d7617c8fa3817da1edab13
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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