Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Sep 14, 4:40 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMagdalena Frech RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Nao Hibino vs Magdalena Frech
58.8%Magdalena Frech
LOCKED Sep 14, 3:50 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Magdalena Frech; all four oriented probabilities average 58.75%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Frech ranked 57 with 1032 points; Hibino rank not supplied (likely materially lower)
- Gemini: Magdalena Frech is currently ranked 57th in the world.
- Grok: Frech explicit rank 57 vs Hibino unranked
- GPT: Magdalena Frech has an explicit current rank of No. 57.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Magdalena Frech · 61.0%
Frech has an explicit current rank of 57 (1032 points), while Hibino has no supplied ranking, which typically implies a lower-ranked or unranked/qualifier-level standing; that ranking gap is the main discriminator. Hibino's better season record (24-21 vs 17-22) partially offsets this, but win-loss totals at this level often reflect play in lower-tier events, whereas Frech's losses likely come against stronger main-draw fields with a top-60 ranking despite a slide from 41. Net effect: a modest edge to Frech, not a decisive one. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel/altitude effects in Guadalajara, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 14, 3:50 PM PDTGemini · Magdalena Frech · 58.0%
Magdalena Frech holds a solid top-60 ranking (57), indicating she consistently plays at the main WTA tour level. While Nao Hibino has a better win-loss record this season (24-21 compared to Frech's 17-22), her lack of a provided ranking suggests she may be accumulating wins at lower-tier events or qualifiers. Without head-to-head or surface data, Frech is a slight favorite based on her known ranking status.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 14, 3:50 PM PDTGrok · Magdalena Frech · 58.0%
Frech holds an explicit WTA ranking of 57 with 1032 points while Hibino has none listed. Frech's season record is 17-22 compared to Hibino's 24-21. The ranking edge favors Frech in this evidence-bounded estimate despite the win totals. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 14, 3:50 PM PDTGPT · Magdalena Frech · 58.0%
Magdalena Frech is the better-supported choice based on the immutable evidence package. The strongest fact is her explicit current WTA rank of 57, which indicates a clearly established position in the tour hierarchy. Nao Hibino's current rank is unavailable, so the comparison is incomplete, but Hibino does have the better supplied 2026 season record at 24-21 versus Frech's 17-22. With only ranking and overall season win-loss available, I give somewhat more weight to Frech's confirmed top-60 ranking than to Hibino's modestly better raw record, while tempering that edge because Hibino's rank is missing rather than poor. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so they cannot be used.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 14, 3:50 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Hibino's current rank is null, so the ranking gap must be inferred
- No surface-specific (hard/altitude) form data
- No head-to-head record supplied
- No injury, fatigue, or travel information
- No market odds or implied probabilities
- Win-loss records lack opponent quality/tier context
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Nao Hibino's ranking is missing, making it difficult to assess the tier of her competition.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
9e4e6090b3ca15784e63b56514065258223d26b4bb05185437007db0b58fc7f9 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c2ce6edab40226ac2f1d87f75eae9784fb44aa3fb5b5e8a354bd234db5f22ad2
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: (7) Magdalena Frech (POL) bt Nao Hibino (JPN) 6-1 6-4
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