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Tennis · Oct 13, 10:05 PM PDT

Catherine McNally vs Karolina Muchova

82.8%Karolina Muchova
LOCKED Oct 13, 9:00 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Karolina Muchova; all four oriented probabilities average 82.75%.

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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.

  1. Confirm every probability refers to the same outcome.
  2. Check the forecast lock and market observation times.
  3. Record the difference and what it does not establish.
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FORECASTKarolina Muchova

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Grok: Muchova current rank 7 vs McNally rank 70
  • Gemini: Muchova is ranked 7th, while McNally is ranked 70th.
  • Claude: Ranking gap: No. 7 vs No. 70 (4,773 vs 958 points)
  • GPT: Current rank strongly favors Karolina Muchova: 7 vs 70.
Read all four model reports

Grok · Karolina Muchova · 82.0%

Karolina Muchova holds a substantial edge based solely on supplied ranking and season record data: world rank 7 with 4773 points and a 40-11 singles record versus McNally's rank 70, 958 points and 26-22 record. Muchova also has two titles to McNally's zero. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable and therefore excluded from the estimate.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Gemini · Karolina Muchova · 82.0%

Karolina Muchova holds a significant advantage in ranking (7 vs 70) and ranking points (4773 vs 958). Her season win-loss record of 40-11 (78.4% win rate) is vastly superior to Catherine McNally's 26-22 (54.2% win rate). Muchova also has 2 titles this season compared to McNally's 0. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Claude · Karolina Muchova · 82.0%

Muchova is ranked No. 7 with 4,773 ranking points and a 40-11 season record with 2 titles, while McNally is ranked No. 70 with 958 points and a 26-22 record and no titles. A roughly 63-place ranking gap plus a far stronger win rate (78% vs 54%) strongly favors Muchova. Both are trending slightly upward in rank (8→7 and 72→70), so recent momentum does not differentiate them. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are not available in the evidence package, so this estimate rests only on ranking and season win-loss data; that uncertainty keeps the probability below the ~85-90% a fuller picture of a top-10 vs top-70 hard-court matchup might support.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

GPT · Karolina Muchova · 85.0%

Karolina Muchova is the clear favorite on the limited immutable evidence provided. She holds a much stronger current ranking (No. 7 vs No. 70), far more ranking points (4773 vs 958), and a substantially better 2026 singles record (40-11 vs 26-22). She also has 2 singles titles this season versus 0 for Catherine McNally. Those indicators all point in the same direction and suggest a sizable class gap. Because the evidence scope is explicitly limited, this estimate does not account for surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds, all of which are unavailable here.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Surface-specific form unavailable
  • Injury status unavailable
  • Head-to-head record unavailable
  • Travel or scheduling factors unavailable
  • Market odds unavailable
  • Surface-specific form is not supplied.
  • Injury reports are unavailable.
  • Head-to-head records are not provided.

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. 0.3 percentage points higher for Karolina Muchova

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hashdac658bc6dd692ec4be1e3b567d71b8a30493635ca0cc7f6879edc2b937a8f41
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash47bac0a4876639ce5f17b548aeb3a5d898c27cf0861e9664c2925cf0b3784cc1

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Karolina Muchova. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 9:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 8:55 PM PDT.

Current TORK82.8%
Simple average82.8%
Calibrated average85.8%
Kalshi81.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 13, 9:04 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

a3e683d26b108042c86ed75eca2817496afe5e5b842c6c137d2c77a8ad32b765
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: (6) Karolina Muchova (CZE) bt Catherine McNally (USA) 3-6 7-6 (7-1) 7-6 (7-4)

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