Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTTemple Owls RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Temple Owls vs Charlotte 49ers
86.1%Temple Owls
LOCKED Oct 17, 9:32 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Temple Owls; all four oriented probabilities average 86.13%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line TEM -17.5 implies a heavy favorite (~90% straight-up)
- Gemini: Temple is favored by 17.5 points
- GPT: Market line strongly favors Temple: -17.5
- Grok: Superior record (2-4 vs 0-6)
Read all four model reports
Claude · Temple Owls · 89.0%
Temple is a 17.5-point home favorite at Lincoln Financial Field against a winless Charlotte team. A spread of that magnitude historically converts to roughly an 88-92% straight-up win rate for the favorite, and the records (2-4 vs 0-6) plus home-field alignment corroborate the market signal rather than conflict with it. I settle at 89%, slightly inside the pure spread conversion to account for unknown injury/availability information and the inherent volatility of mid-major matchups where a single turnover margin swing can decide games.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 8:38 AM PDTGemini · Temple Owls · 89.5%
Temple is a heavy 17.5-point favorite at home against a winless Charlotte team. The large point spread strongly indicates Temple is highly likely to win outright, supported by their home-field advantage.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 8:38 AM PDTGPT · Temple Owls · 84.0%
Temple Owls are the likelier winner based on the supplied comparative signals: a better record (2-4 vs 0-6), home venue at Lincoln Financial Field, and especially a very large market spread of Temple -17.5. In college football, a spread of this size typically indicates a strong expected gap between the teams. With no rankings present and no injuries or efficiency data available in the evidence package, the estimate should remain bounded rather than extreme, but the immutable evidence clearly points to Temple as the favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 8:38 AM PDTGrok · Temple Owls · 82.0%
Temple Owls enter with a 2-4 record versus Charlotte 49ers' 0-6 mark. The market line lists Temple as a 17.5-point home favorite at Lincoln Financial Field, supplying a clear comparative signal that Temple is substantially stronger on current form.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 8:38 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, EPA, success rate) provided
- Strength of schedule behind each record is unknown
- No recent-form trend, margin data, or head-to-head history
- Single market provider snapshot; no line movement or closing value available
- Weather and travel conditions not included
- No advanced statistics provided
- No injury reports or depth-chart changes available
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points lower for Temple Owls
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
2031f56f13df6118165623177adbf605d2eac30a19aa144c7b6bd73fab04a53f - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
084f705102477bbfe3c7b0fb31e2bf2880212f4fdb8d1b4a6649198ab0e5b3b4
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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