Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 8:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMartin Damm RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK83.3% Simple average83.3% Calibrated average86.4% Kalshi86.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Martin Damm
83.3%Martin Damm
LOCKED Oct 17, 7:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Martin Damm; all four oriented probabilities average 83.25%.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Damm ATP rank 104 and 605 points versus Gadamauri null rank
- Gemini: Martin Damm is ranked No. 104 in the world.
- Claude: Damm holds an explicit current rank of 104 with 605 ranking points
- GPT: Martin Damm has a current rank of No. 104; Buvaysar Gadamauri has no listed current rank in the evidence package.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Martin Damm · 78.0%
Martin Damm holds an ATP rank of 104 with 605 ranking points and a 10-14 season singles record, while Buvaysar Gadamauri has null rank, null points, and a 0-0 record. This disparity in supplied ranking and win-loss data supports a clear edge for Damm in an evidence-bounded forecast. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTGemini · Martin Damm · 89.0%
Martin Damm is ranked 104th in the world and has played 24 tour-level matches this season (10-14 record). In contrast, Buvaysar Gadamauri is currently unranked and has not played any tour-level matches this season (0-0 record). This massive disparity in ranking and recent tour-level experience strongly favors Martin Damm. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTClaude · Martin Damm · 80.0%
Damm is the only player with a supplied ATP ranking (No. 104, 605 points, previous 103) and a measurable 2026 tour-level singles record (10-14). Gadamauri has no listed rank, no ranking points, and a 0-0 record in the supplied data, consistent with a player outside the ranked tour cohort (likely a home wildcard/qualifier in Brussels). In ATP qualifying, a top-110 player facing an unranked/unrecorded opponent is a clear favorite, typically winning roughly 4 of 5 such matches. I shade below higher confidence because the absence of Gadamauri's rank is an information gap rather than proof of weakness, and Damm's sub-.500 season record signals he is beatable. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTGPT · Martin Damm · 86.0%
Martin Damm is the clear evidence-based favorite from the supplied package. He has an explicit ATP rank of No. 104 with 605 ranking points and a 10-14 season singles record, while Buvaysar Gadamauri has no current rank listed and a 0-0 season singles record in the provided evidence. Given the instruction to use only the immutable evidence, the strongest signal is the large gap in demonstrated tour standing and documented match volume. A top-104 player with a recorded ATP-season sample should be favored heavily over an opponent with no listed rank and no recorded season results in this package. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here, so this estimate is driven almost entirely by ranking/status and basic season participation.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface form is unavailable.
- Injuries are unavailable.
- Head-to-head records are unavailable.
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.8 percentage points higher for Martin Damm
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
88c7e0c507f6e1a9efa583e6e29845772077f1f041266f46596d4f1824061ec8 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c2318645b52a899c7769a7c58df89b6bcbd2f55bf556791ad750a2692f3835bc
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Martin Damm. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 7:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 7:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 7:30 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
c999d0ebea4607dbf9b357892e63606e52e49c543406b223f35b97d74acb2fd3Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
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