Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 4:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTStefanos Sakellaridis RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK78.3% Simple average78.3% Calibrated average80.9% Kalshi66.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Petr Bar Biryukov
78.3%Stefanos Sakellaridis
LOCKED Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Stefanos Sakellaridis; all four oriented probabilities average 78.25%.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Sakellaridis ATP rank 135 vs Biryukov unranked
- Claude: Sakellaridis holds an explicit ATP rank of 135 with 429 ranking points
- Gemini: Sakellaridis is ranked 135th on the ATP tour.
- GPT: Sakellaridis is ranked No. 135 with 429 ranking points.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Stefanos Sakellaridis · 85.0%
Sakellaridis holds an explicit ATP rank of 135 with 429 ranking points and a 1-4 season singles record, while Biryukov has null rank, null points, and 0-0 record. This ranking differential supports a strong edge for Sakellaridis under the supplied evidence only.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDTClaude · Stefanos Sakellaridis · 71.0%
Sakellaridis is the only player with an explicit ATP ranking in the evidence (No. 135, 429 points, previous rank 134), while Petr Bar Biryukov has no supplied ranking, ranking points, or season match record. An established top-150 player is normally a clear favorite in an ATP qualifying first round against an unranked/undocumented opponent, who is often a wildcard or lower-tier entrant. Offsetting this, Sakellaridis's supplied tour-level season record is weak (1-4), and the absence of any data for Biryukov means his true level could be anywhere from a developing junior to a Challenger-caliber player, so the edge is held moderate rather than large. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDTGemini · Stefanos Sakellaridis · 88.0%
Stefanos Sakellaridis holds an ATP ranking of 135, whereas Petr Bar Biryukov is currently unranked. Sakellaridis also has some tour-level match experience this season, while Bar Biryukov has none recorded in the provided data. The significant ranking advantage makes Sakellaridis the strong favorite, though the lack of lower-level statistics for Bar Biryukov limits absolute certainty. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDTGPT · Stefanos Sakellaridis · 69.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Stefanos Sakellaridis has a clear ranking-based edge: he is ranked No. 135 with 429 points, while Petr Bar Biryukov has no listed current rank or ranking points in the package. Sakellaridis also has an explicit 2026 singles record of 1-4, while Biryukov is listed at 0-0, which is not informative about current ATP-level match strength. In a qualifying-round ATP context, an established top-150 ranking is meaningful evidence of superior baseline ability relative to an opponent with no supplied rank. That said, Sakellaridis's season record is weak, and the evidence package does not provide surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds, so the estimate should be kept moderate rather than extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Evidence limited to current ESPN ranking and season singles record only
- Surface-specific form not supplied (indoor hard conditions in Almaty unmodeled)
- Injury, fitness, and withdrawal status unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
e7413deba35126f5f7a318b66526e73fb9e7e6650303c7b0e9d44247323374f1 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
d725e5194f3491f92a39d9477009d4c9d52def99921ae3e13bb60311b42f10d9
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Stefanos Sakellaridis. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 3:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
f06bc02bc1f59fe39f37ad6c37e5695771f930dd2a9045215b179eca848162d9Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Stefanos Sakellaridis (GRE) bt Petr Bar Biryukov (RUS) 6-2 6-3
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