Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 1:05 PM PDT FORECASTSan Francisco 49ers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers
74.5%San Francisco 49ers
LOCKED Sep 27, 12:35 PM PDT4/4 independent models select San Francisco 49ers; all four oriented probabilities average 74.5%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line DraftKings SF -7.5 implies roughly 76-78% win probability for the home side
- Gemini: San Francisco 49ers are favored by 7.5 points.
- Grok: SF home record 2-0 vs ARI road record 1-1
- GPT: San Francisco is at home at Levi's Stadium.
Read all four model reports
Claude · San Francisco 49ers · 77.0%
DraftKings lists San Francisco at -7.5 with a 48.5 total, which is a solid home-favorite line implying roughly a three-in-four win probability for the 49ers. Records support the market: San Francisco is 2-0 while Arizona is 1-1, and the game is at Levi's Stadium. A 7.5-point spread with a moderate total typically converts to about a 76-78% moneyline win probability, so I land at 77%. No injury or quarterback-status information is supplied for either side, and no moneyline prices are provided, so the estimate leans on the spread conversion and cannot be adjusted for late availability news or weather.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 26, 10:30 PM PDTGemini · San Francisco 49ers · 77.0%
The San Francisco 49ers are 7.5-point home favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. A -7.5 spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 76-78%. The 49ers also hold a 2-0 record compared to the Cardinals' 1-1 start.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 26, 10:30 PM PDTGrok · San Francisco 49ers · 72.0%
San Francisco enters at 2-0 while Arizona is 1-1. The game is at Levi's Stadium with a DraftKings spread of SF -7.5, which implies a substantial home-team edge consistent with the records. No injuries are reported for either side. These factors together support a clear but not overwhelming favorite status for the 49ers.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 26, 10:30 PM PDTGPT · San Francisco 49ers · 72.0%
The supplied evidence supports San Francisco as the more likely winner. They are the home team, enter at 2-0 versus Arizona at 1-1, and the only market evidence in the package is DraftKings listing San Francisco -7.5. A spread of that size in the NFL generally indicates a clear favorite, and it is the strongest comparative signal in the package. Home field and the better early record point the same direction. Because no moneyline, quarterback detail, weather, or meaningful injury information is provided, the estimate should stay bounded rather than overly precise, but San Francisco is still the evident favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 26, 10:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; official game-status reports may not have published
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation for either side
- No moneyline prices supplied, so the probability is derived from the spread alone
- Weather data is null for the venue
- No advanced team metrics, strength of schedule, or scoring margins provided
- No direct moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation from the point spread.
- Injury reports are missing for both teams.
- Weather conditions are not provided.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 9.0 percentage points lower for San Francisco 49ers
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
0e45f1d6a7146476cca71739f85521d3506e194cb837f492103f5f400bfdda5a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
29373bdeaf2c1df460a05521e27f525771d00e660fd93a068fd13baaa8434684
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Arizona Cardinals 30, San Francisco 49ers 36
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