Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 25, 1:25 PM PDT FORECASTDetroit Lions RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
58.1%Detroit Lions
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Detroit Lions; all four oriented probabilities average 58.13%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Detroit Lions are favored by 3 points at home.
- Claude: Market line DET -3 (home favorite) is the single strongest comparative signal
- Grok: Identical 3-2 records for GB and DET
- GPT: DraftKings lists Detroit as a 3-point favorite
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Detroit Lions · 59.5%
The Detroit Lions are 3-point home favorites against the Green Bay Packers. Both teams hold identical 3-2 records early in the season. A -3 spread in the NFL typically implies a win probability of around 59-60% for the favorite. The high total of 52.5 suggests a high-scoring game, which can slightly increase variance, but the Lions' home-field advantage and market support make them the most probable winner.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:40 PM PDTClaude · Detroit Lions · 59.0%
Both teams are 3-2 through six weeks, so the only differentiating evidence is the market: DraftKings has Detroit -3 at home in Ford Field with a 52.5 total. A 3-point home spread historically converts to roughly a 57-61% win probability for the favorite, and the indoor venue removes weather as a swing factor. With no injury or quarterback-status information supplied for either side, I anchor close to the market-implied figure rather than adjusting away from it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:40 PM PDTGrok · Detroit Lions · 56.0%
Both teams hold identical 3-2 records entering week 7. Detroit hosts at Ford Field and carries a 3-point market spread, supplying the only comparative signal favoring the home side by a modest margin. No other differentiating facts are present in the package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:40 PM PDTGPT · Detroit Lions · 58.0%
Detroit is the best evidence-supported favorite. The immutable package shows both teams at 3-2, so record does not separate them. The game is at Ford Field, giving Detroit home field, and the supplied market line is Detroit -3 from DraftKings, which is the strongest comparative signal in the package. A 3-point home favorite in an otherwise even-record matchup implies Detroit is more likely than not to win, but not by an overwhelming margin. With no usable injury detail and no moneyline provided, the estimate should stay conservative rather than extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:40 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- The game is nearly two weeks away, meaning injuries and team situations could change significantly.
- No current injury reports are available in the provided data.
- No moneyline prices provided, so implied probability must be inferred from the spread
- Injury lists are empty for both teams and may simply be unpublished at data capture (Oct 13) for an Oct 25 game
- No quarterback confirmation for either side
- No advanced metrics, point differential, or strength-of-schedule context included
- Line captured ~12 days pre-kickoff and could move materially
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a21fc318f9352cbbc4fe2841d725cdf40f68fd5bbbe273d6eb94184f40825691
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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