Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 16, 4:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMemphis Tigers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Tulane Green Wave vs Memphis Tigers
69.9%Memphis Tigers
LOCKED Oct 16, 4:02 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Memphis Tigers; all four oriented probabilities average 69.88%.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Memphis is a 6.5-point favorite
- Claude: Market line MEM -6.5 implies ~70-74% win probability for Memphis
- Grok: Memphis 5-1 record vs Tulane 2-3
- GPT: Memphis has the better record in the evidence package: 5-1 vs 2-3.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Memphis Tigers · 71.5%
Memphis is favored by 6.5 points on the road against Tulane. The Tigers hold a strong 5-1 record compared to the Green Wave's 2-3 mark. A 6.5-point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of around 71-72% for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 2:23 PM PDTClaude · Memphis Tigers · 71.0%
The DraftKings line of MEM -6.5 is the strongest single signal and implies roughly a 70-74% win probability for Memphis. This is reinforced by the record differential (Memphis 5-1 vs Tulane 2-3), and notably the market favors Memphis by nearly a touchdown despite the game being played at Tulane's Yulman Stadium, implying a sizable neutral-field edge (roughly 9-10 points) for Memphis. I settle near 71%, slightly tempered because home underdogs in conference play and unknown injury/availability information add variance.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 2:23 PM PDTGrok · Memphis Tigers · 67.0%
Memphis enters at 5-1 while Tulane is 2-3. The market line lists Memphis as a 6.5-point road favorite at Tulane's home venue. No rankings are supplied for either side. These structured facts indicate Memphis holds the comparative edge despite the road environment.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 2:23 PM PDTGPT · Memphis Tigers · 70.0%
Memphis is the stronger side on the supplied evidence. The records show a clear edge for Memphis at 5-1 versus Tulane at 2-3, and the only market signal provided is DraftKings listing Memphis -6.5. A road favorite of that size in college football generally indicates a meaningful win-probability edge even after accounting for Tulane's home field at Yulman Stadium. With no rankings provided and no injuries or efficiency data available in the package, the estimate should be bounded rather than extreme, but the combined record and market signals point to Memphis as the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 2:23 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports provided
- No advanced efficiency metrics available
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics, strength of schedule, or common-opponent data
- No rankings provided for either team
- Single market provider snapshot; no line movement history
- Record quality (opponent strength) unknown
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 11.6 percentage points higher for Memphis Tigers
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
8477671032fa05836ffeb114d8f7b6ebf01049d28d1b7fb61d635b966ca1207e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9e5c0b53d7678631a5ab53c12b082e5b2bf15945b8b85b90b7505a40d5cc40af
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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