Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Sep 27, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 models favor Houston Texans, but the mean probability (53.88%) is below the house threshold.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line HOU -1.5 makes Houston a slim road favorite
- Grok: Identical 0-2 records for both teams
- Gemini: Houston is a 1.5-point road favorite.
- GPT: Houston is a 1.5-point favorite despite being the road team
Read all four model reports
Claude · Houston Texans · 55.0%
The only differentiating evidence is the DraftKings line of HOU -1.5 in Indianapolis, which makes Houston a narrow road favorite despite both teams sitting at 0-2. A 1.5-point spread converts to roughly a 54-56% win probability, and the fact that Houston is favored on the road implies the market rates the Texans modestly stronger on a neutral basis, offsetting Indianapolis's home-field edge. The low total (41.5) suggests an expected low-scoring, defense-leaning game, which compresses margins and pushes the outcome closer to a coin flip. With identical records and no injury or quarterback information supplied, I stay close to the market-implied number.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 27, 9:20 AM PDTGrok · Houston Texans · 53.0%
Both teams enter at 0-2 with no other performance metrics supplied. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings market line listing HOU -1.5 on the road, which implies a modest edge for the Texans. No injury data, quarterback information, or advanced stats are available to refine the assessment further.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 27, 9:20 AM PDTGemini · Houston Texans · 53.5%
The Houston Texans are slight 1.5-point road favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams are 0-2, but the betting market favors Houston despite playing away from home. A 1.5-point spread typically translates to a win probability of around 53-54%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 27, 9:20 AM PDTGPT · Houston Texans · 54.0%
The strongest usable comparative evidence is the market spread: Houston is listed as a 1.5-point road favorite at Indianapolis. A team favored on the road is generally more likely than not to win outright, but a 1.5-point spread indicates only a small edge. Both teams are 0-2, so the records do not separate them. Home field works slightly toward Indianapolis, but the market still prices Houston as the better side on this point-in-time evidence. With no conflicting facts and no stronger team-quality data in the package, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow Texans win probability in the low-to-mid 50s.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 27, 9:20 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices supplied, so the implied probability is derived from the spread alone
- Injury lists are empty for both teams and may simply be unpublished rather than clean
- No quarterback status, depth chart, or availability detail provided
- Weather field is null, though the indoor venue makes this immaterial
- No team performance metrics, scoring data, or prior-meeting context included
- Single market provider (DraftKings) with no line-movement history for confirmation
- No team statistics, efficiency metrics, or recent form beyond records
- Injury reports listed as empty; may be incomplete
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d605e44d289aa6927b056b350220be25e23dae24c8278c5b91a43a269e0d50e9 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
fd3142dc64caebd06de48ee08bcb60c0831ad3953cc1053bb28c375e4233f511
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19
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