Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 models favor Chicago Bears, but the mean probability (54%) is below the house threshold.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Chicago Bears are favored by 1.5 points on the road.
- Claude: DraftKings line CHI -1.5 implies Chicago is a slight favorite despite playing on the road
- Grok: Bears 3-1 record vs Packers 2-2 record
- GPT: DraftKings market line shows Chicago -1.5
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Chicago Bears · 54.0%
The Chicago Bears are slight 1.5-point road favorites against the Green Bay Packers. With a 3-1 record compared to Green Bay's 2-2, and a narrow spread, the Bears have a slight edge, translating to roughly a 54% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 8:15 AM PDTClaude · Chicago Bears · 55.0%
The only market signal supplied is DraftKings CHI -1.5, meaning Chicago is a narrow road favorite at Lambeau Field. A 1.5-point spread historically converts to roughly a 54-56% win probability for the favorite. Records align with the line (Chicago 3-1, Green Bay 2-2), providing modest corroboration. Green Bay's home-field advantage is already embedded in the posted number, so no further adjustment is warranted. With no injury, quarterback, or weather detail available, I stay close to the market-implied baseline rather than pushing toward a stronger edge.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 8:15 AM PDTGrok · Chicago Bears · 53.0%
Bears enter at 3-1 while Packers are 2-2; the market line lists CHI -1.5 on the road at Lambeau, indicating the oddsmakers view Chicago as the slightly superior side. Early-season records and the spread together support a modest edge for the Bears despite the venue. No injury data or advanced metrics are supplied, so the estimate stays close to even.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 8:15 AM PDTGPT · Chicago Bears · 54.0%
The immutable evidence slightly favors Chicago. The Bears have the better record (3-1 vs 2-2) and the supplied market signal lists Chicago -1.5, which implies they are the narrow favorite despite being on the road at Green Bay. Road favoritism is a meaningful indicator, but the small spread suggests only a modest edge rather than a strong one. With no weather impact provided and no reported injuries in the package, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a close game with Chicago winning somewhat more often than not.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 8:15 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring a spread-to-probability conversion.
- No injury information is available.
- Weather conditions at Lambeau Field are not provided.
- No moneyline prices provided; probability derived from spread conversion only
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation supplied
- Weather data is null for an October outdoor game in Wisconsin
- No strength-of-schedule, scoring margin, or efficiency metrics included
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4369f255f9aa25c783024fb4c681693a7bf60c94189d31e1dbd6a6b78fdccffa - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
2cc701239f0afc76576d850fc53dc495cf417cef85b456afd51039efaa4e543a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31
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