Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 25, 1:25 PM PDT FORECASTLos Angeles Rams RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders
72.0%Los Angeles Rams
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Los Angeles Rams; all four oriented probabilities average 72%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: LAR -7 market spread at Allegiant Stadium
- Gemini: Market spread favors the Los Angeles Rams by 7 points (LAR -7)
- Claude: DraftKings line LAR -7 implies roughly 76-78% Rams win probability
- GPT: DraftKings spread lists Los Angeles Rams -7
Read all four model reports
Grok · Los Angeles Rams · 68.0%
The DraftKings market line lists LAR as a 7-point road favorite, which is the strongest comparative signal supplied. The Raiders hold a 3-2 record versus the Rams' 2-3, but the spread overrides raw win-loss data in the evidence. No injury or quarterback details are present, and the game is still more than ten days away, so the estimate remains bounded by the market line rather than projected outcomes.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:40 PM PDTGemini · Los Angeles Rams · 73.0%
The Los Angeles Rams are favored by 7 points on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders. In the NFL, a 7-point favorite typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 73-75%. Despite the Rams having a slightly worse record (2-3) than the Raiders (3-2), the betting market strongly favors Los Angeles.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:40 PM PDTClaude · Los Angeles Rams · 75.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of LAR -7 on the road, which historically converts to roughly a 76-78% win probability for the favorite. Records (Rams 2-3, Raiders 3-2) nominally favor Las Vegas, but a 7-point road favorite price implies the market sees a large talent/efficiency gap that records do not capture, and market lines are the stronger predictor. I shade marginally below the raw line-implied figure to account for the line being an early snapshot (12 days pre-kickoff), the absence of injury/QB status data, and home-field value at Allegiant Stadium that could compress the gap if it moves.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:40 PM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Rams · 72.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market spread: Rams -7 on the road. A full-touchdown road favorite is typically a strong signal that the away team is materially more likely to win outright. That outweighs the simple win-loss records, which slightly favor the Raiders at 3-2 versus the Rams at 2-3 but are based on only five games and do not capture team strength as directly as the market line. With no usable injury, quarterback, or weather detail in the package, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that the Rams are clear but not overwhelming favorites.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:40 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury and quarterback status listed as empty but noted as potentially incomplete
- No advanced metrics or prior head-to-head supplied
- Weather and final roster availability unavailable
- No moneyline odds are provided to give a more precise implied probability
- No injury reports are available, which could significantly alter the matchup
- The game is nearly two weeks away from the data current date, leaving room for roster and market changes
- Both injury lists are empty; no confirmation of starter or QB availability
- No moneyline prices provided, so implied probability is derived from the spread only
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9769a309c8cbeaf18a513220561fe9b0c7258c5d73e5a3a3e2de4fd2cfc1b5b8
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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