Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 17, 2:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTCody Chovancek RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung You
56.6%Cody Chovancek
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 56.63% for Cody Chovancek. 3/4 models select this fighter.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Chovancek undefeated 9-0 with 6 finishes and recent DWCS TKO
- Gemini: Chovancek's undefeated 9-0 record and recent DWCS TKO victory
- GPT: SuYoung You has the more experienced overall record at 16-4 versus Chovancek’s 9-0.
- Grok: Chovancek 9-0 record with verified finishes and decisions
Read all four model reports
Claude · Cody Chovancek · 57.0%
Chovancek is 9-0 with six finishes, strong 83 percent takedown defense and a recent DWCS TKO, which blunts You's grappling-heavy approach. You's experience edge and better striking defense keep this close, so only a modest lean.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:21 AM PDTGemini · Cody Chovancek · 62.5%
Cody Chovancek enters as an undefeated prospect with a recent DWCS finish, showcasing solid striking and excellent 83% takedown defense. SuYoung You is more experienced but relies heavily on grappling, yet possesses an extremely low 4% takedown accuracy. Given the short-notice nature of the bout (added roughly 15 days prior to the event), You's inefficient wrestling may lead to fatigue, allowing Chovancek to dictate the striking exchanges and maintain his undefeated record.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:20 AM PDTGPT · SuYoung You · 56.0%
Pre-event evidence favors SuYoung You, but only modestly. Chovancek has the cleaner recent form on paper at 9-0 with five listed recent wins, including a DWCS TKO, and he is the younger fighter with some five-round experience in regional bouts. However, You has the much deeper overall record at 16-4 and the more developed wrestling-based statistical profile, averaging 4.26 takedowns per 15 minutes with some submission threat. Chovancek’s UFC stats show no offensive takedown volume and no submission attempts, which suggests a more striking-centered approach. On the feet, their striking metrics are fairly close, but You’s lower absorbed strikes per minute and much better listed striking defense create a small edge if the fight stays standing, while his grappling volume gives him an additional path. The late-context evidence does not materially shift the matchup: the bout was added about 15
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:20 AM PDTGrok · Cody Chovancek · 63.0%
Chovancek enters undefeated at 9-0 with verified recent wins via TKO, submission and decision, plus solid UFC stats showing balanced striking output and strong takedown defense. You holds a 16-4 record and higher submission volume but posts extremely low takedown accuracy (4%) and lacks any listed recent fights. Both made bantamweight at 135.5 lbs with the bout added two weeks prior; no injuries or other verified disruptions. Chovancek's activity edge and defensive metrics outweigh You's experience gap.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:20 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No recent fight list, age, height or reach for SuYoung You
- No licensed pre-event odds connected
- Bout added about 15 days out; camp or notice details unverified for both
- Missing physical attributes (height, reach) for SuYoung You
- No recent fight history provided for SuYoung You
- Lack of licensed pre-event odds to gauge market sentiment
- SuYoung You’s recent fights list is empty in the supplied evidence, so current form is unclear.
- Several important bio details are missing for You, including height, weight, reach, stance, and date of birth.
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
de490eee2e1cfa66b8fe2c41fc34123d1803001577eb16bd009011abca7c09dd
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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