Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 1:05 PM PDT FORECASTDenver Broncos RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos
56.8%Denver Broncos
LOCKED Sep 20, 12:35 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Denver Broncos; all four oriented probabilities average 56.75%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line DEN -2.5 implies Denver is a modest home favorite (~57-60% win probability)
- Gemini: Denver is favored by 2.5 points.
- Grok: DEN favored by 2.5 points on the road spread equivalent
- GPT: DraftKings lists Denver as a 2.5-point favorite, the clearest win-probability signal in the evidence package
Read all four model reports
Claude · Denver Broncos · 58.0%
The only strong comparative signal is the DraftKings line of DEN -2.5 at home (Mile High altitude), which implies roughly a 57-60% home win probability for a short home favorite. Week 2 records (JAX 1-0, DEN 0-1) are a single-game sample and carry little weight relative to the market, which already incorporates them. No injury or QB status data is provided, and no moneyline is given, so I anchor near the standard spread-to-win-probability conversion for a 2.5-point favorite without adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 16, 2:00 AM PDTGemini · Denver Broncos · 57.0%
The Denver Broncos are 2.5-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. In the NFL, a -2.5 point spread typically translates to a moneyline of approximately -135 to -145, which implies a win probability of roughly 56% to 58% after removing the vig. Despite the Jaguars starting the season 1-0 and the Broncos 0-1, the betting market favors the home team.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 16, 2:00 AM PDTGrok · Denver Broncos · 56.0%
Denver hosts Jacksonville and enters as a 2.5-point favorite per the DraftKings market line. Both teams have played one game (JAX 1-0, DEN 0-1), but the spread supplies the only direct comparative signal. Home-field advantage at altitude and the modest point spread together imply a slight edge for the Broncos. No injury data or advanced metrics are supplied, so the estimate remains tightly bounded to the line.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 16, 2:00 AM PDTGPT · Denver Broncos · 56.0%
Denver is the best evidence-bounded pick despite Jacksonville entering 1-0 and Denver 0-1. The strongest comparative signal in the package is the market line listing Denver as a 2.5-point home favorite, which implies the Broncos are more likely than not to win at home. Jacksonville’s better early record matters, but in Week 2 a one-game record is a weak indicator relative to a current market spread. With no usable quarterback, weather, or injury edge in the package, the home-field and market expectation carry the forecast.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 16, 2:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices provided; probability derived from spread conversion only
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely unreported rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback confirmation or depth-chart detail
- No weather data for an outdoor September game in Denver
- Line captured 2026-09-16, four days before kickoff; could move on late news
- No team efficiency, roster, or prior-season performance metrics supplied
- No direct moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- It is only Week 2 of the season, meaning team records are based on a very small sample size.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a97a90d4caf3680155e78a89ba13e1545a960dbc62a9b57a158eea7b6cbd235a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c3201263bc0e27358fefba5235e0fb646194e36b94b583043781fd2d906f5fbc
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20
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