Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 11, 8:05 PM PDT FORECASTAnhelina Kalinina RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK64.5% Simple average64.5% Calibrated average65.9% Kalshi40.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Sonay Kartal vs Anhelina Kalinina
64.5%Anhelina Kalinina
LOCKED Oct 11, 7:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Anhelina Kalinina; all four oriented probabilities average 64.5%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Kalinina rank 48 vs Kartal null rank
- Claude: Kalinina holds an explicit WTA rank of 48 with 1107 points; Kartal's rank is null
- Gemini: Anhelina Kalinina's rank of 48
- GPT: Anhelina Kalinina has an explicit current WTA rank of No. 48.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Anhelina Kalinina · 62.0%
Kalinina holds an explicit WTA rank of 48 with 1107 ranking points while Kartal has null rank and points. Season records show comparable win rates (Kartal 12-6, Kalinina 39-19) but Kalinina's higher match volume and ranking indicate a moderate edge. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per evidence_scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 7:30 PM PDTClaude · Anhelina Kalinina · 58.0%
Evidence is limited to current ranking and season win-loss. Kalinina is ranked No. 48 (up from 50) with 1107 points and a 39-19 record (67.2%) across a full 58-match season. Kartal has no rank supplied and only an 18-match sample at 12-6 (66.7%), a workload that suggests a curtailed or partial season. Win percentages are nearly identical, so the edge comes from Kalinina's verified top-50 standing and much larger sample of tour-level results, while Kartal's absent ranking adds downside uncertainty rather than upside. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable in this package, so the estimate stays close to a modest lean rather than a confident call.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 7:30 PM PDTGemini · Anhelina Kalinina · 70.0%
Anhelina Kalinina holds a top-50 ranking (48) and has a strong season record of 39 wins and 19 losses. Sonay Kartal has a similar win percentage (12-6) but lacks a current ranking in the provided data and has played significantly fewer matches, suggesting Kalinina is the more established player at this level.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 7:30 PM PDTGPT · Anhelina Kalinina · 68.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Anhelina Kalinina has the clearer pre-match profile. She is explicitly ranked No. 48 and has a much larger 2026 singles sample at 39-19, while Sonay Kartal is listed with a 12-6 season record but no current rank supplied. Both players have solid win rates from the records provided, but Kalinina’s combination of established top-50 ranking and substantially larger volume of wins supports making her the favorite. Because the evidence package is limited to current ranking and season singles record only, the estimate should remain moderate rather than extreme. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 7:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific data supplied
- No head-to-head records supplied
- No injury or travel information supplied
- No market odds or form trends supplied
- Surface-specific (hard-court) form not supplied
- Injury, fitness, and withdrawal status unavailable
- Head-to-head record not provided
- Travel, scheduling, and rest days unknown
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 5.0 percentage points lower for Anhelina Kalinina
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
c824c8aae7ff8b4d34957fbcfb307e93362fc4b5222df11909d88cf2f75841d0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
b4603c63c18a50b3332f66be67502fea7481904fb317ecf6d433f26e398c8268
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Anhelina Kalinina. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 7:31 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 7:30 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 7:39 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
9ccd00ad83edeb9adb1197e2701cf61411817daa28623eec99c2d42cc4ad305bAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Sonay Kartal (GBR) bt Anhelina Kalinina (UKR) 7-5 6-3
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