Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 15, 7:05 AM PDT FORECASTFrancesca Jones RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Francesca Jones vs Francisca Jorge
64.3%Francesca Jones
LOCKED Oct 15, 4:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Francesca Jones; all four oriented probabilities average 64.25%.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Jones explicit rank 104 vs Jorge unranked
- Gemini: Francesca Jones is ranked 104th in the world with 726 ranking points.
- Claude: Jones holds an explicit current rank of 104 with 726 ranking points and stable rank trend (105 to 104)
- GPT: Francesca Jones has an explicit current WTA rank of 104.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Francesca Jones · 62.0%
Francesca Jones holds an explicit WTA ranking of 104 with 726 points while Francisca Jorge has no rank listed but a 31-25 season record. This ranking differential supports selecting Jones as the more likely winner. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Francesca Jones · 65.0%
Francesca Jones holds a solid WTA ranking of 104, demonstrating consistent performance at a high professional level. While Francisca Jorge has a positive 31-25 season record, her lack of an established ranking in the provided data makes Jones the more proven competitor based on the available metrics.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Francesca Jones · 63.0%
The only usable differentiators are Jones's explicit current WTA ranking (No. 104, essentially static from 105, 726 points) versus Jorge's absence of any supplied ranking alongside a modest 31-25 season singles record with no titles. A top-110 ranking typically reflects a stronger level than an unranked/lower-ranked profile with a near-.550 win rate accumulated largely at lower tiers, so Jones is the modest favorite in a Round 2 match. However, the margin is tempered: no surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/rest, or market odds are supplied, and Jorge's missing rank prevents a direct ranking-gap calculation. The event is played in Lisbon, Portugal, but no home-crowd or wildcard context is provided in the evidence, so it cannot be weighted. This supports only a mild lean rather than a confident call.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Francesca Jones · 67.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Francesca Jones is the stronger favorite because she has an explicit current WTA rank of No. 104 with 726 ranking points, while Francisca Jorge has no supplied current rank or ranking points and is represented only by a 31-25 season singles record. A top-110 ranking is strong evidence of higher overall level in this field, and Jones also shows slight week-over-week stability/improvement (previous rank 105 to current 104). Jorge’s 31 wins indicate meaningful match activity and competence, which prevents an extreme estimate, but without a current rank or points it is difficult to rate her at the same level as Jones from this package alone. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence, so the estimate relies primarily on Jones’s ranking edge versus Jorge’s decent but not dominant season record.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific data available
- No head-to-head record supplied
- No injury or travel information provided
- No market odds or form trends included
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Francesca Jones's season win-loss record is missing.
- Francisca Jorge's current ranking is missing.
- Surface-specific form is not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.3 percentage points lower for Francesca Jones
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d3f016d3cbd8929e71fc17913e867dc845459e963b9762be626191396937edfa - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
b7d0234f60054352fa0d2121eb5f865e966235ad1160b3e149869947206b2ef3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (2) Francesca Jones (GBR) bt Francisca Jorge (POR) 6-3 6-4
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