Tennis · Oct 17, 9:00 PM PDT

Sofia Kenin vs Sinja Kraus

64.8%Sinja Kraus

NOT LOCKED

4/4 independent models select Sinja Kraus; all four oriented probabilities average 64.75%.

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FORECASTSinja Kraus

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Grok: Kraus rank 75 and 910 points vs Kenin rank 125 and 592 points
Claude: Kraus ranked 75 vs Kenin 125 (910 vs 592 ranking points)
Gemini: Sinja Kraus is ranked 75th with 910 points.
GPT: Sinja Kraus has the better current rank: 75 vs Sofia Kenin's 125.

Read all four model reports

Grok · Sinja Kraus · 62.0%

Sinja Kraus holds the superior current rank (75 vs 125) and ranking points (910 vs 592). Sofia Kenin’s season record of 7-23 is poor. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable. Estimate uses only supplied ranks and record.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 2:35 AM PDT

Claude · Sinja Kraus · 66.0%

Kraus is the clearly better-positioned player on the supplied facts: current rank 75 (910 points) and improving from 95, versus Kenin at 125 (592 points) and sliding from 107. Kenin's only supplied season record is a poor 7-23 with no titles, consistent with a player struggling through a difficult year; Kraus's win-loss is not supplied, but her upward ranking trajectory implies positive recent results. A ~50-spot ranking gap plus the form signal supports a moderate edge rather than a large one, since qualifying-round matches between players in the 75-125 band are frequently close and Kenin retains higher peak-level pedigree not captured in current ranking. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate is deliberately kept near a modest favorite level.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 2:35 AM PDT

Gemini · Sinja Kraus · 68.0%

Sinja Kraus holds a significant ranking advantage over Sofia Kenin (75 vs 125) and has accumulated more ranking points (910 vs 592). Furthermore, Kenin has struggled significantly this season with a 7-23 win-loss record, while Kraus's ranking has been on an upward trajectory. Without surface-specific data or head-to-head records, the ranking and Kenin's poor form point to Kraus as the favorite.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 2:35 AM PDT

GPT · Sinja Kraus · 63.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Sinja Kraus rates as the more likely winner because her current WTA rank (75) is substantially better than Sofia Kenin's (125), and her ranking trend is positive (previous rank 95 to 75) while Kenin's is negative (107 to 125). Kenin's supplied 2026 singles record of 7-23 is also weak. Kraus's season win-loss record is not supplied, so the estimate cannot lean on direct season results for both players symmetrically. Given the stronger current ranking and ranking momentum for Kraus, offset by the missing season record for her, a moderate edge is justified rather than an extreme one. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 2:35 AM PDT

What remains uncertain

Surface-specific form unavailable
Injuries unavailable
Head-to-head unavailable
Travel unavailable
Market odds unavailable
Only current ESPN rank and season record supplied
Head-to-head record not supplied
Surface-specific (hard court/indoor) form not supplied

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What changed before the lock

Oct 17, 2:35 AM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
207ec16f020f373b768f81434036144e34868458c67f251efcd11c1c9101d2d0

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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Available source context

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