Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 4:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTHouston Cougars RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Houston Cougars vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
61.1%Houston Cougars
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Houston Cougars; all four oriented probabilities average 61.13%.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line HOU -4 implies roughly a 63-66% Houston win probability
- Gemini: Houston is a 4-point favorite according to the market line.
- Grok: Houston 5-1 record vs Oklahoma State 4-1
- GPT: Market line lists Houston as a 4-point favorite
Read all four model reports
Claude · Houston Cougars · 64.0%
Houston is listed as a 4-point favorite (DraftKings HOU -4) and is hosting at TDECU Stadium, which is the single most informative comparative signal in the package. A home favorite of roughly a field goal to four points historically converts to about a 62-67% win probability. Records (5-1 vs 4-1) and rankings (No. 20 vs No. 18) are close enough to be essentially neutral, with the slight ranking edge to Oklahoma State offset by Houston's home-field pricing edge, so I stay near the market-implied figure rather than deviating.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 10:08 AM PDTGemini · Houston Cougars · 63.5%
Houston is favored by 4 points at home against a similarly ranked Oklahoma State team. A 4-point spread typically implies a win probability of around 63-65% for the home favorite, reflecting their slight edge combined with home-field advantage.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 10:08 AM PDTGrok · Houston Cougars · 57.0%
Houston enters with a 5-1 record compared to Oklahoma State's 4-1, hosts the game at TDECU Stadium, and is favored by 4 points on the DraftKings market line. The teams' rankings (Houston 20, Oklahoma State 18) are nearly identical, providing only a modest edge to the home team. The spread of -4 implies Houston is the slight favorite in a game with a high total of 62.5.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 10:08 AM PDTGPT · Houston Cougars · 60.0%
Houston is the best evidence-backed favorite from the package. The strongest comparative signal is the market line: Houston -4 at home, which implies Houston is more likely than not to win by a meaningful but not dominant margin. The venue also favors Houston because the game is at TDECU Stadium. Oklahoma State has a slightly better ranking (No. 18 vs No. 20), which offsets some of Houston’s edge, and the records are close (Houston 5-1, Oklahoma State 4-1), so this does not support an extreme probability. Balancing the home field and market support for Houston against Oklahoma State’s slightly better ranking yields an estimate around 60% for Houston to win.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 10:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, pace, or strength-of-schedule metrics
- Record-to-team mapping and ranking-to-team mapping inferred from list order
- Single sportsbook line with no closing-line movement or market consensus
- No weather or travel/rest-day details
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics.
- No injury reports or depth chart changes are available.
- Weather conditions and other situational factors are not specified.
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Record hash
c0a736c38d2b1befd5435f7de7f996e6f5cce607c874182ed44740dfeaaf727a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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