Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 18, 5:20 PM PDT FORECASTGreen Bay Packers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers
55.1%Green Bay Packers
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Green Bay Packers; all four oriented probabilities average 55.13%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Green Bay is favored by 1.5 points.
- Claude: Market line GB -1.5 implies a narrow home favorite (~54-57%)
- Grok: GB holds a one-game lead in the standings (3-2 vs 2-3)
- GPT: Green Bay is the home team at Lambeau Field.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Green Bay Packers · 54.5%
The Green Bay Packers are slight 1.5-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. With a 3-2 record compared to Dallas's 2-3, and the home-field advantage at Lambeau Field, the market slightly favors Green Bay. A 1.5-point spread typically translates to roughly a 53-55% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 8:20 AM PDTClaude · Green Bay Packers · 56.0%
The only strong comparative signal is the DraftKings line of GB -1.5 at Lambeau Field, which frames this as close to a pick'em with Green Bay a slim home favorite. A 1.5-point favorite historically converts to roughly a 54-57% win probability. Secondary support: Green Bay is 3-2 versus Dallas at 2-3, and the Packers hold home-field advantage in a late-season-ish October night game in Wisconsin. No injury or quarterback-status data is supplied for either side, and no moneylines are given, so I anchor tightly to the spread-implied estimate without further adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 8:20 AM PDTGrok · Green Bay Packers · 55.0%
Green Bay enters at 3-2 with home-field advantage at Lambeau Field against a 2-3 Dallas team. The DraftKings market line lists GB -1.5, consistent with a modest home favorite edge in a low-information environment. No injuries or quarterback details are supplied, and the game is still five days away, so the edge remains narrow.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 8:20 AM PDTGPT · Green Bay Packers · 55.0%
The immutable evidence gives Green Bay two modest but aligned edges: home field at Lambeau Field and the only market signal, DraftKings listing GB -1.5. Team records also slightly favor Green Bay (3-2 vs 2-3). A 1.5-point home spread implies a fairly close game rather than a strong favorite, so the win probability should be only somewhat above 50%. With no usable quarterback, weather, or detailed injury information beyond empty lists, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow Packers edge.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 8:20 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury reports are available at this time.
- Weather conditions at Lambeau Field are not provided.
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback or key-player availability confirmation
- No moneyline odds or vig-free market probability supplied
- Weather data is null for an outdoor late-October game in Green Bay
- No efficiency, DVOA-style, or point-differential metrics included
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
34579f3acb8353997130ebf159d09a5c6b013eb3d8158c03bf07a9f8a9fd45c3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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